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Fundamental and Behavioural Drivers of Electricity Price Volatility

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  • Karakatsani Nektaria V

    ()
    (Regulatory Authority for Energy - Greece)

  • Bunn Derek W.

    ()
    (London Business School)

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    Abstract

    The stochastic properties of volatility in spot electricity prices are only partially understood and present substantial modelling challenges. This paper develops and applies three complementary modelling approaches in order to uncover its fundamental and behavioural drivers over time and across intra-day trading periods. First, intra-day prices are related to systematic components, including economic fundamentals, strategic and market design effects. Then, residual volatility is attributed to: i) regular, non-linear agent reactions to market fundamentals (covariates of heteroscedasticity), ii) the adaptation of price formation due to substantial agent learning (time-varying effects), and iii) the transient extreme pricing in periods of scarcity (regime-switching dynamics). We find that, i) GARCH effects diminish, when each of the above sources of volatility is accounted for, and ii) allowing for the time-varying responses of prices to fundamentals can yield more precise volatility estimates than an explicit GARCH specification.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

    Volume (Year): 14 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 4 (September)
    Pages: 1-42

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    Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:14:y:2010:i:4:n:4

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    Web page: http://www.degruyter.com

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    Cited by:
    1. Joanna Janczura & Rafał Weron, 2013. "Goodness-of-fit testing for the marginal distribution of regime-switching models with an application to electricity spot prices," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 97(3), pages 239-270, July.
    2. Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2011. "Goodness-of-fit testing for the marginal distribution of regime-switching models," MPRA Paper 32532, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Haugom, Erik & Ullrich, Carl J., 2012. "Forecasting spot price volatility using the short-term forward curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1826-1833.
    4. O'Mahoney, Amy & Denny, Eleanor, 2011. "Electricity Prices and Generator Behaviour in Gross Pool Electricity Markets," MPRA Paper 34847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Joanna Janczura & Rafal Weron, 2011. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/11/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.

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