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Realized volatility and price spikes in electricity markets: The importance of observation frequency

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  • Ullrich, Carl J.
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    Abstract

    This paper uses high frequency spot price data from eight wholesale electricity markets in Australia, Canada, and the United States to estimate realized volatility and the frequency of price spikes. I find similar levels of realized volatility in Australia and North America, with estimates ranging from 1500% to 2700%, much greater than estimates reported previously in the literature. In hourly data, the frequency of price spikes ranges from approximately 35% to 40% in seven of eight markets. I present evidence that increasing the lag length in the calculation of bipower variation improves jump detection in electricity prices.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 6 ()
    Pages: 1809-1818

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:6:p:1809-1818

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

    Related research

    Keywords: Realized volatility; Bipower variation; Observation frequency; Electricity markets; Price spikes;

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    References

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    1. Geman, Hélyette & Roncoroni, Andréa, 2006. "Understanding the Fine Structure of Electricity Prices," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/1433, Paris Dauphine University.
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    3. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2007. "Roughing It Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling and Forecasting of Return Volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2007-18, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
    4. Goto, Mika & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2004. "Understanding Electricity Price Volatility within and across Markets," Working Paper Series 2004-12, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    5. Higgs, Helen & Worthington, Andrew, 2008. "Stochastic price modeling of high volatility, mean-reverting, spike-prone commodities: The Australian wholesale spot electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3172-3185, November.
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    7. Lester Hadsell, Achla Marathe and Hany A. Shawky, 2004. "Estimating the Volatility of Wholesale Electricity Spot Prices in the US," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 23-40.
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    9. Xin Huang & George Tauchen, 2005. "The Relative Contribution of Jumps to Total Price Variance," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 3(4), pages 456-499.
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    11. Mount, Timothy D. & Ning, Yumei & Cai, Xiaobin, 2006. "Predicting price spikes in electricity markets using a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 62-80, January.
    12. Pirrong, Craig & Jermakyan, Martin, 2008. "The price of power: The valuation of power and weather derivatives," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2520-2529, December.
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    14. Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Gustavo Figueroa, 2005. "Pricing in Electricity Markets: a Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0507, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    15. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2004. "Power and Bipower Variation with Stochastic Volatility and Jumps," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-37.
    16. Alvaro Escribano & J. Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2011. "Modelling Electricity Prices: International Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(5), pages 622-650, October.
    17. Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September.
    18. Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Kossmeier, Stephan & Obersteiner, Michael & Schnabl, Alexander, 2005. "Real options and the value of generation capacity in the German electricity market," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 297-310.
    19. H�lyette Geman & Andrea Roncoroni, 2006. "Understanding the Fine Structure of Electricity Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1225-1262, May.
    20. Zareipour, Hamidreza & Bhattacharya, Kankar & Canizares, Claudio A., 2007. "Electricity market price volatility: The case of Ontario," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4739-4748, September.
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    Cited by:
    1. Haugom, Erik & Ullrich, Carl J., 2012. "Forecasting spot price volatility using the short-term forward curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1826-1833.

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