This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in European electricity forward markets

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Yannick LE PEN
Benoît SEVI
Abstract

Using daily data from March 2001 to June 2005, we estimate a VAR-BEKK model and find evidence of return and volatility spillovers between the German, the Dutch and the British forward electricity markets. We apply Hafner and Herwartz [2006, Journal of International Money and Finance 25, 719-740] Volatility Impulse Response Function(VIRF) to quantify the impact of shock on expected conditional volatility. We observe that a shock has a high positive impact only if its size is large compared to the current level of volatility. The impact of shocks are usually not persistent, which may be an indication of market efficiency. Finally, we estimate the density of the VIRF at different forecast horizon. These fitted distributions are asymmetric and show that extreme events are possible even if their probability is low. These results have interesting implications for market participants whose risk management policy is based on option prices which themselves depend on the volatility level.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.creden.univ-montp1.fr/downloads/cahiers/CC-08-09-77.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by CREDEN (Centre de Recherche en Economie et Droit de l'Energie), Faculty of Economics, University of Montpellier 1 in its series Cahiers du CREDEN (CREDEN Working Papers) with number 08.09.77.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mop:credwp:08.09.77

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Université de Montpellier 1, Faculté des Sciences Economiques, CREDEN, Av. de la Mer - Espace Richter, CS 79606, 34960 Montpellier Cedex 2, France
Phone: 33 (0)4 67 15 83 60
Fax: 33 (0)4 67 15 84 04
Web page: http://www.creden.univ-montp1.fr
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Olivier ROUSSE).

Related research
Keywords: volatility impulse response function; GARCH; non Gaussian distributions; electricity market; forward markets;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Goto, Mika & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2004. "Understanding Electricity Price Volatility within and across Markets," Working Paper Series 2004-12, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2006. "Volatility impulse responses for multivariate GARCH models: An exchange rate illustration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 719-740, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 1999. "Cointegration analysis of spot electricity prices: insights on transmission efficiency in the western US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 435-448, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Matteo Pelagatti & Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Fabio Baldi, 2007. "A Robust Multivariate Long Run Analysis of European Electricity Prices," Working Papers 2007.103, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Eric Jondeau & Michael Rockinger, 2006. "The Impact of News on Higher Moments," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 06-28, Swiss Finance Institute. [Downloadable!]
  8. Huisman, Ronald & Huurman, Christian & Mahieu, Ronald, 2007. "Hourly electricity prices in day-ahead markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 240-248, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    • Huisman, R. & Huurman, C. & Mahieu, R.J., 2007. "Hourly Electricity Prices in Day-Ahead Markets," Research Paper ERS-2007-002-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  9. Karolyi, G Andrew, 1995. "A Multivariate GARCH Model of International Transmissions of Stock Returns and Volatility: The Case of the United States and Canada," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-25, January.
  10. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1993. "Nonlinear Dynamic Structures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 871-907, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Lester Hadsell & Achla Marathe & Hany A. Shawky, 2004. "Estimating the Volatility of Wholesale Electricity Spot Prices in the US," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 25(4), pages 23-40.
  12. Hélyette Geman & Andrea Roncoroni, 2006. "Understanding the Fine Structure of Electricity Prices," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1225-1262, May. [Downloadable!]
  13. Apostolos Serletis & Akbar Shahmoradi, 2006. "Measuring and Testing Natural Gas and Electricity Markets Volatility: Evidence from Alberta's Deregulated Markets," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 10(3). [Downloadable!]
  14. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Robert Wilson, 2002. "Architecture of Power Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1299-1340, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Kalvinder Shields & Nilss Olekalns & Ólan T. Henry & Chris Brooks, 2003. "Measuring the Response of Macroeconomic Uncertainty to Shocks," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 870, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Severin Borenstein, 2002. "The Trouble with Electricity Markets: Understanding California's Restructuring Disaster," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 191-211, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Ewing, Bradley T. & Malik, Farooq & Ozfidan, Ozkan, 2002. "Volatility transmission in the oil and natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 525-538, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Bystrom, Hans N. E., 2005. "Extreme value theory and extremely large electricity price changes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 41-55. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms & M. Angeles Carnero, 2005. "Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMA-GARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-091/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Mount, Timothy D. & Ning, Yumei & Cai, Xiaobin, 2006. "Predicting price spikes in electricity markets using a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 62-80, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Lin, Wen-Ling, 1997. "Impulse Response Function for Conditional Volatility in GARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 15-25, January.
  23. Lin, Wen-Ling & Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi, 1994. "Do Bulls and Bears Move across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 507-38. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique & Calzolari, Giorgio, 2004. "On the validity of the Jarque-Bera normality test in conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic regression models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 307-312, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Zachmann, Georg, 2008. "Electricity wholesale market prices in Europe: Convergence?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1659-1671, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Rafal Weron & Adam Misiorek, 2005. "Modeling and forecasting electricity loads: A comparison," Econometrics 0502004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  28. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 2003. "The economic value of volatility timing using "realized" volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 473-509, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Koutmos, Gregory & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1995. "Asymmetric volatility transmission in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 747-762, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. B. Ricky Rambharat & Anthony E. Brockwell & Duane J. Seppi, 2005. "A threshold autoregressive model for wholesale electricity prices," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 54(2), pages 287-299. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Huisman, Ronald & Mahieu, Ronald, 2003. "Regime jumps in electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 425-434, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    • Huisman, R. & Mahieu, R.J., 2001. "Regime Jumps in Electricity Prices," Research Paper ERS-2001-48-F&A Revision_, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  34. Lester Hadsell & Hany A. Shawky, 2006. "Electricity Price Volatility and the Marginal Cost of Congestion: An Empirical Study of Peak Hours on the NYISO Market, 2001-2004," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 157-180.
  35. Worthington, Andrew & Kay-Spratley, Adam & Higgs, Helen, 2005. "Transmission of prices and price volatility in Australian electricity spot markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 337-350, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  36. Figlewski, Stephen, 1984. " Hedging Performance and Basis Risk in Stock Index Futures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 657-69, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  37. Jeff Fleming, 2001. "The Economic Value of Volatility Timing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 329-352, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  38. Álvaro Escribano & Juan Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2002. "Modeling Electricity Prices: International Evidence," Economics Working Papers we022708, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
  39. Dempster, Gregory & Isaacs, Justin & Smith, Narin, 2008. "Price discovery in restructured electricity markets," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 250-259, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  40. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? There are NEP reports in over 80 fields that deliver new research to your email.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-30.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.