A robust multivariate long run analysis of European electricity prices
AbstractThis paper analyses the interdependencies existing in wholesale electricity prices in six major European countries. The results of our robust multivariate long run dynamic analysis reveal the presence of four highly integrated central European markets (France, Germany, the Netherlands and Austria). The trend shared by these four electricity markets appears to be common also to gas prices, but not to oil prices. The existence of long term dynamics among electricity prices and between electricity prices and gas prices may prove to be important for long term hedging operations to be conducted even in countries where well established and liquid electricity derivatives markets are not present. Since standard unit root and cointegration tests are not robust to the peculiar characteristics of electricity prices time series, we adapt and further develop a battery of robust inference procedures that should assure the reliability of our results.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Dipartimento di Statistica in its series Working Papers with number 20070901.
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2007
Date of revision:
European electricity prices; Cointegration; Interdependencies; Equilibrium Correction model; Oil prices; Robustness;
Other versions of this item:
- Matteo Pelagatti & Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Fabio Baldi, 2007. "A Robust Multivariate Long Run Analysis of European Electricity Prices," Working Papers 2007.103, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Auctions
- L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
- Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-09-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2007-09-24 (European Economics)
- NEP-ENE-2007-09-24 (Energy Economics)
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