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Measuring the Response of Macroeconomic Uncertainty to Shocks

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Author Info
Kalvinder Shields (The University of Melbourne)
Nilss Olekalns (The University of Melbourne)
Ãlan T. Henry (The University of Melbourne)
Chris Brooks (ISMA Centre, The University of Redding)

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Abstract

Recent research documents the importance of uncertainty in determining macroeconomic outcomes, but little is known about the transmission of uncertainty across such outcomes. This paper examines the response of uncertainty about inflation and output growth to shocks documenting statistically significant size and sign bias and spillover effects. Uncertainty about inflation is a determinant of output uncertainty, whereas higher growth volatility tends to raise inflation volatility. Both inflation and growth volatility respond asymmetrically to positive and negative shocks. Negative growth and inflation shocks lead to higher and more persistent uncertainty than shocks of equal magnitude but opposite sign. Copyright (c) 2005 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1162/0034653053970276
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Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 87 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (07)
Pages: 362-370
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:87:y:2005:i:2:p:362-370

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  10. Kevin B. Grier & Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. HAFNER, Christian & HERWARTZ, Helmut, 2001. "Volatility impulse response functions for multivariate GARCH models," CORE Discussion Papers 2001039, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
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  15. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 1992. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 143-172. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. repec:mop:credwp:08.09.77 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Macroeconomics and ARCH," NBER Working Papers 14151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premium and Macroeconomic Volatilities in the UK," Discussion Papers 07/13, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
  4. Olan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "Time Variation And Asymmetry In The World Price Of Covariance Risk: The Implications For International Diversification," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 907, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  5. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premia and Macroeconomic Volatilities," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 140, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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