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Intraday Volatility in International Stock Index Futures Markets: Meteor Showers or Heat Waves?

Author

Listed:
  • G. Geoffrey Booth

    (E. J. Ourso College of Business Administration, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 70803)

  • Mustafa Chowdhury

    (Financial Research Department, Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, McLean, Virginia 22102)

  • Teppo Martikainen

    (School of Business Studies, University of Vaasa, P.O. Box 700, FIN-65101 Vaasa, Finland)

  • Yiuman Tse

    (School of Management, Binghamton University (SUNY), Binghamton, New York 13902)

Abstract

The international transmission of intraday price volatility among the United States, United Kingdom, and Japanese stock index futures markets in the period 1988--1994 is investigated in this paper. The empirical results based on extreme-value estimators and vector autoregression indicate the rapid transmission of information between markets. The volatilities of the U.S. and U.K. futures markets appear to follow a meteor shower rather than a heat wave type of process. This means that these volatilities react to shocks from other markets, i.e., they cannot be described only by their past values. However, the heat wave hypothesis is not rejected for the Japanese market, meaning that the shocks to Japanese volatility are mostly country-specific. A multivariate GARCH model supports the U.K. and Japanese but not the U.S. results.

Suggested Citation

  • G. Geoffrey Booth & Mustafa Chowdhury & Teppo Martikainen & Yiuman Tse, 1997. "Intraday Volatility in International Stock Index Futures Markets: Meteor Showers or Heat Waves?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(11), pages 1564-1576, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:43:y:1997:i:11:p:1564-1576
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.43.11.1564
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Balcilar, Mehmet & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Toparli, Elif Akay, 2018. "On the risk spillover across the oil market, stock market, and the oil related CDS sectors: A volatility impulse response approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 813-827.
    2. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2010. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in European electricity forward markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 758-770, July.
    3. Gediminas Adomavicius & Jesse Bockstedt & Alok Gupta, 2012. "Modeling Supply-Side Dynamics of IT Components, Products, and Infrastructure: An Empirical Analysis Using Vector Autoregression," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 23(2), pages 397-417, June.
    4. Smith, Kenneth L., 2001. "Pre- and post-1987 crash frequency domain analysis among Pacific Rim equity markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 69-87, February.
    5. Yiuman Tse & Lin Zhao, 2011. "The Relationship between Currency Carry Trades and U.S. Stocks The article examines the relationship between daily returns of currency carry trades and U.S. stocks from January 1995 through September ," Working Papers 0005, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    6. Chris Bilson & Tim Brailsford & Twm Evans, 2005. "The International Transmission of Arbitrage Information Across Futures Markets," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(5‐6), pages 973-1000, June.
    7. Fan, Zaifeng & Jump, Jeff & Tse, Yiuman & Yu, Linda, 2023. "Volatility in US dairy futures markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    8. Eleanor Xu, Xiaoqing & Chen, Peter & Wu, Chunchi, 2006. "Time and dynamic volume-volatility relation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1535-1558, May.
    9. Jian Yang & R. Brian Balyeat & David J. Leatham, 2005. "Futures Trading Activity and Commodity Cash Price Volatility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1‐2), pages 297-323, January.
    10. Ivan Indriawan & Qingfu Liu & Yiuman Tse, 2019. "Market quality and the connectedness of steel rebar and other industrial metal futures in China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(11), pages 1383-1393, November.
    11. Tse, Yiuman, 1998. "International transmission of information: evidence from the Euroyen and Eurodollar futures markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 909-929, December.
    12. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6800 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Floros, Christos & Kizys, Renatas, 2016. "Dynamic spillover effects in futures markets: UK and US evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 406-418.
    14. Nikkinen, Jussi & Sahlstrom, Petri, 2004. "International transmission of uncertainty implicit in stock index option prices," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15.
    15. Dimitrios Kartsonakis-Mademlis & Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2022. "Asymmetric volatility transmission in Japanese stock market in the presence of structural breaks," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 73(4), pages 647-677, October.
    16. Giulio Cifarelli & Giovanna Paladino, 2001. "Volatility spillovers and the role of leading financial centres," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(216), pages 37-71.
    17. Vinay Datar & Raymond So & Yiuman Tse, 2008. "Liquidity commonality and spillover in the US and Japanese markets: an intraday analysis using exchange-traded funds," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 379-393, November.
    18. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Kizys, Renatas & Floros, Christos, 2014. "Dynamic Spillover Effects in Futures Markets," MPRA Paper 53876, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. In, Francis, 2007. "Volatility spillovers across international swap markets: The US, Japan, and the UK," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 329-341, April.
    20. Konstantinos Tsiaras, 2020. "Contagion in Futures Metal Markets during the Recent Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc and Aluminium," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 70(3-4), pages 42-55, July-Dece.
    21. Gannon, Gerard, 2005. "Simultaneous volatility transmissions and spillover effects: U.S. and Hong Kong stock and futures markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 326-336.
    22. Shrestha, Keshab & Naysary, Babak & Philip, Sheena Sara Suresh, 2023. "Price discovery in carbon exchange traded fund markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    23. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5450 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Boppana Nagarjuna & Varadi Vijay Kumar, 2010. "Heat waves or Meteor showers: Empirical evidence from the stock markets," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 53(2), pages 57-74.

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