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The volatility of prices in the English and Welsh electricity pool

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Author Info

  • Terry Robinson
  • Andrzej Baniak

Abstract

The volatility of spot prices has been a notable feature of the English and Welsh Electricity Pool since its formation in 1990. This study investigates the possibility that the volatility of spot prices is strongly affected by the functioning of the contract market for electricity. This paper suggest that generators with market power may have an incentive to create volatility in the spot market in order to benefit from higher risk premia in the contract market. A simple theoretical model is used to illustrate this argument. Nonparametric techniques are used to test for changes in volatility after the expiry of the coal contracts in 1993 and during the price cap of 1994-1996. Strongly significant increases in volatility are found in the latter period.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840110108063
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 34 (2002)
Issue (Month): 12 ()
Pages: 1487-1495

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:34:y:2002:i:12:p:1487-1495

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Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20

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Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Li, Ying & Flynn, Peter C., 2004. "Deregulated power prices: comparison of volatility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(14), pages 1591-1601, September.
  2. Shukla, Umesh Kumar & Thampy, Ashok, 2011. "Analysis of competition and market power in the wholesale electricity market in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2699-2710, May.
  3. Goto, Mika & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2004. "Understanding Electricity Price Volatility within and across Markets," Working Paper Series 2004-12, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  4. Helen Higgs & Andrew C Worthington, 2004. "Systematic Features of High-Frequency Volatility in Australian Electricity Markets: Intraday Patterns, Information Arrival and Calendar Effects," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 186, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
  5. Worthington, Andrew & Kay-Spratley, Adam & Higgs, Helen, 2005. "Transmission of prices and price volatility in Australian electricity spot markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 337-350, March.
  6. Hesamzadeh, Mohammad R. & Biggar, Darryl R. & Hosseinzadeh, Nasser, 2011. "The TC-PSI indicator for forecasting the potential for market power in wholesale electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5988-5998, October.
  7. Andrew C. Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2003. "A multivariate GARCH analysis of the domestic transmission of energy commodity prices and volatility: A comparison of the peak and off-peak periods in the Australian electricity spot market," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 140, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
  8. Paul Twomey & Richard Green & Karsten Neuhoff & David Newbery, 2005. "A Review of the Monitoring of Market Power: The Possible Roles of TSOs in Monitoring for Market Power Issues in Congested Transmission Systems," Working Papers 0502, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
  9. Barry Goss, 2006. "Liquidity, volume and volatility in US electricity futures: the case of Palo Verde," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 43-46, January.
  10. Tashpulatov, Sherzod N., 2013. "Estimating the volatility of electricity prices: The case of the England and Wales wholesale electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 81-90.
  11. Christian Redl & Derek Bunn, 2013. "Determinants of the premium in forward contracts," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 90-111, January.
  12. Hipòlit Torró, 2007. "Forecasting Weekly Electricity Prices at Nord Pool," Working Papers 2007.88, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  13. Sandro Sapio, 2009. "Modelling the distribution of day-ahead electricity returns: a comparison," LEM Papers Series 2009/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  14. Andrea Petrella & Sandro Sapio, 2010. "No PUN intended: A time series analysis of the Italian day-ahead electricity prices," RSCAS Working Papers 2010/03, European University Institute.

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