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On the risk premium in Nordic electricity futures prices

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Author Info

  • Lucia, Julio J.
  • Torró, Hipòlit

Abstract

This paper examines empirically the relationship between electricity spot and futures prices, by analysing a decade of data for a set of short term-to-maturity futures contracts traded in the Nordic Power Exchange. It is found that, on average, there are significant positive risk premiums in short-term electricity futures prices. The significance and size of the premiums, however, varies seasonally over the year; whereas it is greatest during winter, it is zero in summer. It is also found that time-varying risk premiums are significantly related to unexpectedly low reservoir levels. Furthermore, before the unprecedented supply-shock that hit the market around the end of year 2002, the risk premiums were related to the variance and the skewness of future spot prices.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Economics & Finance.

Volume (Year): 20 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 750-763

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Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:20:y:2011:i:4:p:750-763

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165

Related research

Keywords: Energy derivatives Futures premium Seasonal risk premia;

References

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  1. Amundsen, Eirik S. & Bergman, Lars, 2006. "Why has the Nordic electricity market worked so well?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 148-157, September.
  2. von der Fehr, N-H.M. & Amundsen , E.S. & Bergman, L., 2005. "The Nordic Market: Signs of Stress?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0525, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, 06.
  4. Bystrom, Hans N. E., 2005. "Extreme value theory and extremely large electricity price changes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 41-55.
  5. Haldrup, Niels & Nielsen, Morten Orregaard, 2006. "A regime switching long memory model for electricity prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 349-376.
  6. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1987. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums,and the Theory of Storage," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 55-73, January.
  7. Goto, Mika & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2004. "Understanding Electricity Price Volatility within and across Markets," Working Paper Series 2004-12, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  8. Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Almut E. D. Veraart & Luitgard A. M. Veraart, 2013. "Risk premia in energy markets," CREATES Research Papers 2013-02, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  2. Rafal Weron & Michal Zator, 2013. "Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market," HSC Research Reports HSC/13/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.

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