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High frequency analysis of lead-lag relationships between financial markets

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  • de Jong, Frank
  • Nijman, Theo

Abstract

High frequency data are often observed at irregular intervals, which complicates the analysis of lead-lag relationships between financial markets. Frequently, estimators have been used that are based on observations at regular intervals, which are adapted to the irregular observations case by ignoring some observations and imputing others. In this paper we propose an estimator that avoids imputation and uses all available transactions to calculate (cross) covariances. This creates the possibility to analyze lead-lag relationships at arbitrarily high frequencies without additional imputation bias, as long as weak identifiability conditions are satisfied. We also provide an empirical application to the lead-lag relationship between the SP500 index and futures written on it.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

Volume (Year): 4 (1997)
Issue (Month): 2-3 (June)
Pages: 259-277

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Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:4:y:1997:i:2-3:p:259-277

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Cited by:
  1. Ellul, Andrew, 2006. "Ripples through markets: Inter-market impacts generated by large trades," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 173-196, October.
  2. Mizrach, Bruce & Neely, Christopher J., 2008. "Information shares in the US Treasury market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1221-1233, July.
  3. deB. Harris, Frederick H. & McInish, Thomas H. & Wood, Robert A., 2002. "Security price adjustment across exchanges: an investigation of common factor components for Dow stocks," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 277-308, July.
  4. Corsi, Fulvio & Peluso, Stefano & Audrino, Francesco, 2012. "Missing in Asynchronicity: A Kalman-EM Approach for Multivariate Realized Covariance Estimation," Economics Working Paper Series 1202, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
  5. S. Sanfelici & M. E. Mancino, 2008. "Covariance estimation via Fourier method in the presence of asynchronous trading and microstructure noise," Economics Department Working Papers 2008-ME01, Department of Economics, Parma University (Italy).
  6. Christian Upper & Thomas Werner, 2002. "How resilient are financial markets to stress? Bund futures and bonds during the 1998 turbulence," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 110-123 Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Sandoval, Leonidas, 2014. "To lag or not to lag? How to compare indices of stock markets that operate on different times," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 403(C), pages 227-243.
  8. Precup, Ovidiu V. & Iori, Giulia, 2004. "A comparison of high-frequency cross-correlation measures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 252-256.
  9. Renault, Eric & Sekkat, Khalid & Szafarz, Ariane, 1998. "Testing for spurious causality in exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 47-66, January.
  10. de Jong, Frank & Mahieu, Ronald J & Schotman, Peter C, 1999. "Price Discovery on Foreign Exchange Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 2296, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Michiel de Pooter & Martin Martens & Dick van Dijk, 2005. "Predicting the Daily Covariance Matrix for S&P 100 Stocks Using Intraday Data - But Which Frequency to Use?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-089/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 03 Jan 2006.
  12. Yi-Tsung Lee & Wei-Shao Wu & Yun Yang, 2013. "Informed Futures Trading and Price Discovery: Evidence from Taiwan Futures and Stock Markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 219-242, September.
  13. Christensen, Kim & Kinnebrock, Silja & Podolskij, Mark, 2010. "Pre-averaging estimators of the ex-post covariance matrix in noisy diffusion models with non-synchronous data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 116-133, November.
  14. Robert, Christian Y. & Rosenbaum, Mathieu, 2010. "On the limiting spectral distribution of the covariance matrices of time-lagged processes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(10), pages 2434-2451, November.
  15. Andersson, Jonas, 2007. "On the estimation of correlations for irregularly spaced time series," Discussion Papers 2007/19, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.
  16. Kim, Jun Sik & Ryu, Doojin, 2014. "Intraday price dynamics in spot and derivatives markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 247-253.
  17. Michiel de Pooter & Martin Martens & Dick van Dijk, 2005. "Predicting the Daily Covariance Matrix for S&P 100 Stocks Using Intraday Data - But Which Frequency to Use?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-089/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 03 Jan 2006.
  18. Karyn L. Williams, 2000. "Price Discovery in Multiple-Dealer Markets: The Case of the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2000-37, Claremont Colleges.
  19. Ángel Pardo & Francisco Climent, 2000. "Relaciones temporales entre el contrato de futuro sobre IBEX-35 y su activo subyacente," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 24(1), pages 219-236, January.

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