Modelling and forecasting the volatility of the portuguese stock index PSI-20
AbstractThe volatility clustering often seen in financial data has increased the interest of researchers in applying good models to measure and forecast stock returns. This paper aims to model the volatility for daily and weekly returns of the Portuguese Stock Index PSI-20. By using simple GARCH, GARCH-M, Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) and Threshold ARCH (TARCH) models, we find support that there are significant asymmetric shocks to volatility in the daily stock returns, but not in the weekly stock returns. We also find that some weekly returns time series properties are substantially different from properties of daily returns, and the persistence in conditional volatility is different for some of the sub-periods referred. Finally, we compare the forecasting performance of the various volatility models in the sample periods before and after the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 2077.
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Portuguese Journal of Management Studies Nº1.XI(2004): pp. 3-21
EGARCH; forecasting; GARCH; GARCH-M; leverage effect; PSI-20 index; TARCH; volatility;
Other versions of this item:
- Jorge Caiado, 2004. "Modelling And Forecasting The Volatility Of The Portuguese Stock Index Psi-20," Portuguese Journal of Management Studies, ISEG, Technical University of Lisbon, ISEG, Technical University of Lisbon, vol. 0(1), pages 3-21.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
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