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Informational overshooting, booms and crashes

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Author Info
Joseph Zeira

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Abstract

This paper offers an informational explanation to stock markets' booms and crashes. This explanation builds on the idea of 'informational overshooting': if market fundamentals change for an unknown period of time, prices experience a boom, which ends in a crash, due to informational dynamics. The paper then shows that 'informational overshooting' occurs when the market expands to a new capacity, which is unknown until it is reached. The paper presents two examples for such expansions, one due to increased productivity and one due to entry of new investors to the stock market. One implication is that financial liberalizations tend to be followed by booms and crashes.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2000)
Issue (Month): Apr ()
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2000:i:apr:x:1

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Keywords: Stock market;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John V, 1993. "Sectoral Shocks, Learning, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(4), pages 777-94, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Garber, Peter M, 1990. "Famous First Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 35-54, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Mayer, Colin, 1988. "New issues in corporate finance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1167-1183, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Benjamin M. Friedman & David I. Laibson, 1989. "Economic Implications of Extraordinary Movements in Stock Prices," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1989-2), pages 137-190. [Downloadable!]
  6. Gennotte, Gerard & Leland, Hayne, 1990. "Market Liquidity, Hedging, and Crashes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 999-1021, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Mayshar, Joram, 1979. "Transaction Costs in a Model of Capital Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 673-700, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Romer, David, 1993. "Rational Asset-Price Movements without News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1112-30, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Rob, Rafael, 1991. "Learning and Capacity Expansion under Demand Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(4), pages 655-75, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Barsky, Robert B. & Long, J. Bradford De, 1990. "Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(02), pages 265-281, June. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alessandro Barbarino & Boyan Jovanovic, 2004. "Shakeouts and Market Crashes," NBER Working Papers 10556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    • Alessandro Barbarino & Boyan Jovanovic, 2007. "Shakeouts And Market Crashes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(2), pages 385-420, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Christian Hellwig, 2005. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition (March 2007, with Laura Veldkamp)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 369, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Nicolas Magud, 2002. "On Asymmetric Business Cycles and the Effectiveness of Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policies," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-20, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 May 2005. [Downloadable!]
  4. Zhu Wang, 2005. "Technological innovation and market turbulence: the dot-com experience," Payments System Research Working Paper PSR WP 05-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Zhu Wang, 2007. "Income distribution, market size and the evolution of industry," Payments System Research Working Paper PSR WP 04-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    Other versions:
  6. Gil Mehrez & Daniel Kaufmann, 2003. "Transparency, Liberalization and Financial Crises," Finance 0308008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Michele Boldrin & David K. Levine, 2000. "Growth cycles and market crashes," Staff Report 279, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2008. "Thought and Behavior Contagion in Capital Markets," MPRA Paper 9164, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Bart Hobijn & Boyan Jovanovic, 2000. "The Information Technology Revolution and the Stock Market: Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Mehrez, Gil & Kaufmann, Daniel, 2000. "Transparency, liberalization, and banking crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2286, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ryo Horii & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2004. "Learning, Liquidity Preference, and Business Cycle," ISER Discussion Paper 0601, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University. [Downloadable!]
  12. Laura Veldkamp & Christian Hellwig, 2006. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition," Working Papers 06-14, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Benmelech, Effi & Kandel, Eugene & Veronesi, Pietro, 2007. "Stock-Based Compensation and CEO (Dis)Incentives," CEPR Discussion Papers 6515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Laura Veldkamp, 2003. "Learning Asymmetries in Real Business Cycles," Working Papers 03-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Han N. Ozsoylev, 2005. "Amplification and Asymmetry in Crashes and Frenzies," OFRC Working Papers Series 2005fe11, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Andolfatto, David, 2003. "Monetary Implications of the Hayashi-Prescott Hypothesis for Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(4), pages 1-20, December. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Wing Lon Ng, 2006. "Overreaction and Multiple Tail Dependence at the High-frequency Level — The Copula Rose," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-086, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  18. Fracois Ortalo-Magne & Sven Rady, 2000. "Why are Housing Prices so Volatile? Income Shocks in a Stochastic Heterogeneous-Agents Model," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1352, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  19. Frankel, David M., 2007. "Adaptive Expectations and Stock Market Crashes," Staff General Research Papers 12817, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  20. Kevin J. Lansing, 2005. "Lock-in of extrapolative expectations in an asset pricing model," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Francois Ortalo-Magne & Sven Rady, 2001. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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