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Informational overshooting, booms and crashes

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  • Joseph Zeira

Abstract

This paper offers an informational explanation to stock markets' booms and crashes. This explanation builds on the idea of 'informational overshooting': if market fundamentals change for an unknown period of time, prices experience a boom, which ends in a crash, due to informational dynamics. The paper then shows that 'informational overshooting' occurs when the market expands to a new capacity, which is unknown until it is reached. The paper presents two examples for such expansions, one due to increased productivity and one due to entry of new investors to the stock market. One implication is that financial liberalizations tend to be followed by booms and crashes.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2000)
Issue (Month): Apr ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2000:i:apr:x:1

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Keywords: Stock market;

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  1. David Romer, 1992. "Rational Asset Price Movements Without News," NBER Working Papers 4121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1989. "Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century," NBER Working Papers 3171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Mayer, Colin, 1987. "New Issues in Corporate Finance," CEPR Discussion Papers 181, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August.
  5. Garber, Peter M, 1990. "Famous First Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 35-54, Spring.
  6. Gerard Gennotte and Hayne Leland., 1989. "Market Liquidity, Hedging and Crashes," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-184, University of California at Berkeley.
  7. Rob, Rafael, 1991. "Learning and Capacity Expansion under Demand Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 655-75, July.
  8. Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John V, 1993. "Sectoral Shocks, Learning, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 777-94, October.
  9. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
  10. White, Eugene N, 1990. "The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1929 Revisited," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 67-83, Spring.
  11. Benjamin M. Friedman & David I. Laibson, 1989. "Economic Implications of Extraordinary Movements in Stock Prices," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(2), pages 137-190.
  12. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
  13. Mayshar, Joram, 1979. "Transaction Costs in a Model of Capital Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 673-700, August.
  14. Zeira, Joseph, 1987. "Investment as a Process of Search," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 204-10, February.
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