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Index Funds and Stock Market Growth

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  • Massimo Massa

    ()
    (INSEAD - Department of Finance)

  • William N. Goetzmann

    ()
    (Yale School of Management, International Center for Finance)

Abstract

Our analysis of daily index fund flows indicates a strong contemporaneous correlation between fund inflows and S&P market returns. We also document a strong negative correlation between fund out flows and S&P market returns with the exception of outflows from a back-end load fund. These effects may be interpreted in two ways. Either investor supply and demand affects S&P market prices, or investors condition their demand and supply on intra-day market fluctuations. To sort out these effects, we examine trailing investor reaction to market moves. Our results suggest the market reacts to daily demand. However, only negative reactions appear due to past returns. We investigate whether index investor demand shocks are permanent or temporary by examining the related behavior of the S&P futures index. Clear evidence supports the hypothesis that they are permanent. This result may help explain the unusual recent relative performance of the S&P 500 index. Using the average market-timing newsletter recommendation over the period, we find that investors appear to react to

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Yale School of Management in its series Yale School of Management Working Papers with number ysm23.

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Date of creation: 27 Apr 1999
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Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm23

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Web page: http://icf.som.yale.edu/
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  1. Geweke, John & Meese, Richard & Dent, Warren, 1983. "Comparing alternative tests of causality in temporal systems : Analytic results and experimental evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 161-194, February.
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  5. Chevalier, Judith & Ellison, Glenn, 1997. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1167-1200, December.
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  7. Lynch, Anthony W & Mendenhall, Richard R, 1997. "New Evidence on Stock Price Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 Index," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(3), pages 351-83, July.
  8. Josef Lakonishok & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1991. "Do Institutional Investors Destabilize Stock Prices? Evidence on Herding and Feedback Trading," NBER Working Papers 3846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Lakonishok, Josef, et al, 1991. "Window Dressing by Pension Fund Managers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 227-31, May.
  10. Constantinides, G.M. & Donalson, J.B. & Mehra, R., 1997. "Junior Can't Borrow: A New Perspective on the Equity Premium Puzzle," Papers 97-24, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  11. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1992. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 4193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
  13. Chordia, Tarun, 1996. "The structure of mutual fund charges," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-39, May.
  14. Warther, Vincent A., 1995. "Aggregate mutual fund flows and security returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 209-235.
  15. repec:fth:calaec:21-98 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Chan, Louis K. C. & Lakonishok, Josef, 1993. "Institutional trades and intraday stock price behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 173-199, April.
  17. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. " Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-90, July.
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