Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Mean Reversion of Standard & Poor's 500 Index Basis Changes: Arbitrage-Induced or Statistical Illusion?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Miller, Merton H
  • Muthuswamy, Jayaram
  • Whaley, Robert E

Abstract

Mean reversion in stock index basis changes has been presumed to be driven by the trading activity of stock index arbitragers. The authors propose here instead that the observed negative autocorrelation in basis changes is mainly a statistical illusion, arising because many stocks in the index portfolio trade infrequently. Even without formal arbitrage, reported basis changes would appear negatively autocorrelated as lagging stocks eventually trade and get updated. The implications of this study go beyond index arbitrage, however. The authors' analysis suggests that spurious elements may creep in whenever the price-change or return series of two securities or portfolios of securities are differenced. Copyright 1994 by American Finance Association.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28199406%2949%3A2%3C479%3AMROS%26P%3E2.0.CO%3B2-R&origin=repec
File Function: full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 49 (1994)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 479-513

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:49:y:1994:i:2:p:479-513

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.afajof.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.afajof.org/membership/join.asp

Related research

Keywords:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. G.S Morgan & Peter N. Smith & S.H. Thomas, . "Portfolio return autocorrelation and non-synchronous trading in UK equities," Discussion Papers 00/46, Department of Economics, University of York.
  2. Joseph K.W. Fung & Philip Yu, 2007. "Order Imbalance and the Dynamics of Index and Futures Prices," Working Papers 072007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  3. Barry Harrison & Winston Moore, 2012. "Stock Market Efficiency, Non-Linearity, Thin Trading and Asymmetric Information in MENA Stock Markets," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, Economic Issues, vol. 17(1), pages 77-93, March.
  4. Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Modeling and Forecasting Stock Returns: Exploiting the Futures Market, Regime Shifts and International Spillovers," Working Papers, Warwick Business School, Finance Group wp04-11, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  5. Yang Hou & Steven Li, 2013. "Price Discovery in Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: New Evidence Based on Intraday Data," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 49-70, March.
  6. Deville, Laurent, 2008. "Exchange traded funds : history, trading and research," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/903, Paris Dauphine University.
  7. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1995. "Can Speculative Trading Explain the Volume-Volatility Relation?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 379-96, October.
  8. Chin, Wencheong, 2008. "Spurious long-range dependence: evidence from Malaysian equity markets," MPRA Paper 7914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Lin, Xiaoqiang & Chen, Qiang & Tang, Zhenpeng, 2014. "Dynamic hedging strategy in incomplete market: Evidence from Shanghai fuel oil futures market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 81-90.
  10. Gresse, Carole & Deville, Laurent & De Séverac, Béatrice, 2014. "Direct and Indirect Effects of Index ETFs on Spot-Futures Pricing and Liquidity : Evidence from the CAC 40 Index," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7689, Paris Dauphine University.
  11. Anderson, Heather M & Vahid, Farshid, 2001. "Market Architecture and Nonlinear Dynamics of Australian Stock and Futures Indices," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 541-66, December.
  12. Helder Sebastião, 2008. "The partial adjustment factors of FTSE 100 stock index and stock index futures: The informational impact of electronic trading systems," GEMF Working Papers 2008-07, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  13. Joel Hasbrouck & Duane J. Seppi, 1998. "Common Factors in Prices, Order Flows and Liquidity," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business- 99-011, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  14. Joseph K.W. Fung, 2006. "Order Imbalance and the Pricing of Index Futures," Working Papers 132006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  15. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2002. "Partial Adjustment or Stale Prices? Implications from Stock Index and Futures Return Autocorrelations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 655-689, March.
  16. A. Abhyankar & L. S. Copeland & W. Wong, 1999. "LIFFE cycles: intraday evidence from the FTSE-100 Stock Index futures market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 123-139.
  17. Chin, Wen Cheong, 2008. "Heavy-tailed value-at-risk analysis for Malaysian stock exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(16), pages 4285-4298.
  18. Juan A. Lafuente & Manuel Illueca Muñoz, 2003. "The Effect Of Futures Trading Activity On The Distribution Of Spot Market Returns," Working Papers. Serie EC, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) 2003-23, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:49:y:1994:i:2:p:479-513. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.