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Index Funds and Stock Market Growth

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Author Info
William N. Goetzmann (Yale School of Management)
Massimo Massa (INSEAD)

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Abstract

We use 2 years of daily flows for three major Standard and Poor's index funds to analyze the relationship among index funds, asset prices, and volatility. We find strong contemporaneous correlation between inflows and returns, no evidence for positive feedback trading, and evidence that negative market returns may induce subsequent sales. Market volatility affects investors as dynamic risk sharing, but higher volatility does not drive investors from the market. Bullish newsletter sentiment is associated with greater inflows. We report high correlation among investor disagreement and market uncertainty and flows. Dispersion in advice and open interest correlate with lower inflows.

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File URL: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/cgi-bin/resolve?JB760101
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Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Business.

Volume (Year): 76 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 1-28
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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:76:y:2003:i:1:p:1-28

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lakonishok, Josef, et al, 1991. "Window Dressing by Pension Fund Managers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 227-31, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Judith A. Chevalier & Glenn D. Ellison, 1995. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," NBER Working Papers 5234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. " Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-95, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. George M. Constantinides & John B. Donaldson & Rajinish Mehra, . "Junior Can't Borrow: A New Perspective on the Equity Premium Puzzle," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series 21-98, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
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  5. Warther, Vincent A., 1995. "Aggregate mutual fund flows and security returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 209-235. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Chordia, Tarun, 1996. "The structure of mutual fund charges," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-39, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lynch, Anthony W & Mendenhall, Richard R, 1997. "New Evidence on Stock Price Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 Index," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(3), pages 351-83, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Geweke, John & Meese, Richard & Dent, Warren, 1983. "Comparing alternative tests of causality in temporal systems : Analytic results and experimental evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 161-194, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1996. "Market timing ability and volatility implied in investment newsletters' asset allocation recommendations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 397-421, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Josef Lakonishok & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1991. "Do Institutional Investors Destabilize Stock Prices? Evidence on Herding and Feedback Trading," NBER Working Papers 3846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bakshi, Gurdip S & Chen, Zhiwu, 1994. "Baby Boom, Population Aging, and Capital Markets," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 165-202, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1992. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 4193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Chan, Louis K. C. & Lakonishok, Josef, 1993. "Institutional trades and intraday stock price behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 173-199, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Chan, Louis K C & Lakonishok, Josef, 1995. " The Behavior of Stock Prices around Institutional Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1147-74, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. " Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-90, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & Takato Hiraki & Noriyoshi Shirishi & Masahiro Watanabe, 2003. "Investor Sentiment in Japanese and U.S. Daily Mutual Fund Flows," NBER Working Papers 9470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Roger M. Edelen & Jerold B. Warner, . "Aggregate Prixe Effects of Institutional Trading: A Study of Mutual Fund Flow and Market Returns," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 26-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Massa, Massimo & Peyer, Urs & Tong, Zhenxu, 2005. "Limits of Arbitrage and Corporate Financial Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Braverman, Oded & Kandel, Shmuel & Wohl, Avi, 2005. "The (Bad?) Timing of Mutual Fund Investors," CEPR Discussion Papers 5243, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Randall Morck & Fan Yang, 2001. "The Mysterious Growing Value of S&P 500 Membership," NBER Working Papers 8654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Paul A. Gompers & Andrew Metrick, . "Institutional Investors and Equity Prices," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 20-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Julie Agnew, 2004. "An Analysis Of How Individuals React To Market Returns In One 401(k) Plan," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-13, Center for Retirement Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Christian Pierdzioch & Andrea Schertler, 2007. "Sources of Predictability of European Stock Markets for High-technology Firms," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-27, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. William N. Goetzmann & Massimo Massa, 2000. "Daily Momentum and Contrarian Behavior of Index Fund Investors," NBER Working Papers 7567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Hau, Harald & Massa, Massimo & Peress, Joël, 2005. "Do Demand Curves for Currencies Slope Down? Evidence from the MSCI Global Index Change," CEPR Discussion Papers 4862, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. William N. Goetzmann & Massimo Massa, 2003. "Disposition Matters: Volume, Volatility and Price Impact of a Behavioral Bias," NBER Working Papers 9499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Hau, Harald, 2007. "A Generalized Portfolio Approach to Limited Risk Arbitrage: Evidence from the MSCI Global Index Change," CEPR Discussion Papers 6094, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2006. "Dedicated REIT Mutual Fund Flows and REIT Performance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 409-433, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. David Ling & Gianluca Marcato & Patrick McAllister, 2008. "The Dynamics of Asset Prices and Transaction Activity in Illiquid Markets: The Case of Private Commercial Real Estate," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2008-11, Henley Business School, Reading University. [Downloadable!]
  15. John Gallo & Chanwit Phengpis & Peggy Swanson, 2007. "Determinants of Equity Style," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-51, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Anthony Richards, 2004. "Big Fish in Small Ponds: The Trading Behaviour and Price Impact of Foreign Investors in Asian Emerging Equity Markets," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-05, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2002. "Comovement," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1953, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    • Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2002. "Comovement," NBER Working Papers 8895, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    • Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2005. "Comovement," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 283-317, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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