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Mean Reversion in Short-Horizon Expected Returns

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  • Conrad, Jennifer
  • Kaul, Gautam

Abstract

This article develops and estimates a simple model for monthly expected stock returns that relies on the rapidly decaying structure of shorter-horizon (weekly) expected returns. The most striking aspect of our findings is that the rapid mean reversion in short-horizon expected returns implies much greater variation through time in monthly expected returns than has been documented in earlier studies. For instance, during the 1962 to 1985 period, over 25 percent of the return variance of small firms can be explained by time variation in expected returns. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 2 (1989)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 225-40

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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:2:y:1989:i:2:p:225-40

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Cited by:
  1. Warren Dean & Robert Faff, 2008. "Evidence of feedback trading with Markov switching regimes," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 133-151, February.
  2. Chen, Son-Nan & Jeon, Kisuk, 1998. "Mean reversion behavior of the returns on currency assets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 185-200.
  3. Angelos Kanas & George Kouretas, 2001. "A cointegration approach to the lead-lag effect among size-sorted equity portfolios," Working Papers 0101, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
  4. Jong, F.C.J.M. de & Nijman, T.E. & Röell, A.A., 1997. "Price effects of trading and components of the bid-ask spread on the Paris Bourse," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-153836, Tilburg University.
  5. Bruno Solnik, 1991. "Finance Theory and Investment Management," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 127(III), pages 303-324, September.
  6. Miffre, Joëlle & Brooks, Chris & Li, Xiafei, 2013. "Idiosyncratic volatility and the pricing of poorly-diversified portfolios," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 78-85.
  7. Kin Lam & May Chun Mei Wong & Wing-Keung Wong, 2005. "New Variance Ratio Tests to Identify Random Walk from the General Mean Reversion Model," Departmental Working Papers wp0514, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
  8. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 1999. "Behavioralize This! International Evidence on Autocorrelation Patterns of Stock Index and Futures Returns," NBER Working Papers 7214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. John Hatgioannides & Spiros Mesomeris, 2005. "Mean Reversion in Equity Prices: the G-7 Evidence," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 64, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  10. Levy, Haim & Wiener, Zvi, 2013. "Prospect theory and utility theory: Temporary versus permanent attitude toward risk," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-23.
  11. Espinosa Méndez, Christian, 2005. "Evidencia De Comportamiento Caótico En Indices Bursátiles Americanos
    [Evidence Of Chaotic Behavior In American Stock Markets]
    ," MPRA Paper 2794, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Jun 2006.
  12. McKenzie, Michael D. & Faff, Robert W., 2005. "Modeling conditional return autocorrelation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 23-42.
  13. George Milunovich, 2004. "Modeling dependence structure in size-sorted portfolios: A Structural Multivariate GARCH Model," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 55, Econometric Society.
  14. P. Chelley-Steeley, 2004. "Serial correlation in the returns of UK capitalization based portfolios," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(13), pages 975-979.
  15. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 1999. "Behavioralize This! International Evidence on Autocorrelation Patterns of Stock Index and Futures Returns," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-040, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  16. Kin Lam & Li Wei, . "Optimal Trading Strategy When Return Process is AR(1)," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 16, Society for Computational Economics.
  17. Solnik, Bruno, 1993. "The performance of international asset allocation strategies using conditioning information," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 33-55, June.

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