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Partial Adjustment or Stale Prices? Implications from Stock Index and Futures Return Autocorrelations

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Author Info

  • Dong-Hyun Ahn

    (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill)

  • Jacob Boudoukh

    (New York University, IDC, and NBER)

  • Matthew Richardson

    (New York University and NBER)

  • Robert F. Whitelaw

    (New York University and NBER)

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    Abstract

    We investigate the relation between returns on stock indices and their corresponding futures contracts to evaluate potential explanations for the pervasive yet anomalous evidence of positive, short-horizon portfolio autocorrelations. Using a simple theoretical framework, we generate empirical implications for both microstructure and partial adjustment models. The major findings are (i) return autocorrelations of indices are generally positive even though futures contracts have autocorrelations close to zero, and (ii) these autocorrelation differences are maintained under conditions favorable for spot-futures arbitrage and are most prevalent during low-volume periods. These results point toward microstructure-based explanations and away from explanations based on behavioral models. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal Review of Financial Studies.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 2 (March)
    Pages: 655-689

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    Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:15:y:2002:i:2:p:655-689

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    Cited by:
    1. Candelon, Bertrand & Joëts, Marc & Tokpavi, Sessi, 2013. "Testing for Granger causality in distribution tails: An application to oil markets integration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 276-285.
    2. Anderson, Robert M. & Eom, Kyong Shik & Hahn, Sang Buhm & Park, Jong-Ho, 2013. "Autocorrelation and partial price adjustment," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 78-93.
    3. Helder Sebastião, 2008. "The partial adjustment factors of FTSE 100 stock index and stock index futures: The informational impact of electronic trading systems," GEMF Working Papers 2008-07, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
    4. Marc Joëts, 2013. "Energy price transmissions during extreme movements," Working Papers 2013-028, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    5. repec:ipg:wpaper:28 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Anderson, Robert M. & Eom, Kyong Shik & Hahn, Sang Buhm & Park, Jong-Ho, 2005. "Stock Return Autocorrelation is Not Spurious," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt9s35b82c, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    7. Earl A. Thompson & Jonathan Treussard & Charles R. Hickson, 2004. "Predicting Bubbles and Bubbles-Substitutes," UCLA Economics Working Papers 836, UCLA Department of Economics.
    8. DePenya, Francisco J. & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2007. "Serial correlation in the Spanish Stock Market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 84-103.
    9. KUDRYAVTSEV Andrey, 2012. "Early To Rise: When Opening Stock Returns Are Higher Than Daily Returns?," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 7(3), pages 58-73, December.
    10. Bertrand Candelon & Marc Joëts & Sessi Tokpavi, 2012. "Testing for crude oil markets globalization during extreme price movements," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-28, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
    11. Edelen, Roger M. & Kadlec, Gregory B., 2012. "Delegated trading and the speed of adjustment in security prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 294-307.
    12. Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Ooi, Yao Hua & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2012. "Time series momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 228-250.
    13. Amini, Shima & Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin, 2013. "A review of the international literature on the short term predictability of stock prices conditional on large prior price changes: Microstructure, behavioral and risk related explanations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-17.
    14. Chin Man Chui & Jian Yang, 2012. "Extreme Correlation of Stock and Bond Futures Markets: International Evidence," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 565-587, 08.
    15. Armitage, Seth & Chakravarty, Shanti P. & Hodgkinson, Lynn & Wells, Jo, 2012. "Are there arbitrage gaps in the UK gilt strips market?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3080-3090.
    16. Fong, Wai Mun & Yong, Lawrence H. M., 2005. "Chasing trends: recursive moving average trading rules and internet stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 43-76, January.
    17. N. R. Bhanumurthy & Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2012. "Weather Shocks, Spot and Futures Agricultural Commodity Prices- An Analysis for India," Working papers 219, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.

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