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Overconfidence among physicians and nurses: The 'micro-certainty, macro-uncertainty' phenomenon

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  • Baumann, Andrea O.
  • Deber, Raisa B.
  • Thompson, Gail G.

Abstract

Overconfidence in clinicians was examined in two independently designed studies, each using a different research approach. The first study examined treatment choices of physicians in treating breast cancer, and the second rapid decision making among nurses working in Intensive Care Units. In both studies, individual respondents were highly confident they had made the right choice ('micro-certainty'), although there was no consensus across respondents as to what the optimal treatment would be ('macro-uncertainty'). The difference between micro-certainty of individuals and macro-uncertainty within the clinical community may cast some light on the persistence of practice variation. The implications of overconfidence in clinical treatment for patients, practitioners, and professional regulation are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Baumann, Andrea O. & Deber, Raisa B. & Thompson, Gail G., 1991. "Overconfidence among physicians and nurses: The 'micro-certainty, macro-uncertainty' phenomenon," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 167-174, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:32:y:1991:i:2:p:167-174
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Fonseca Costa & Francisval Carvalho & Bruno César Moreira & José Willer Prado, 2017. "Bibliometric analysis on the association between behavioral finance and decision making with cognitive biases such as overconfidence, anchoring effect and confirmation bias," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(3), pages 1775-1799, June.
    2. KENT D. DANIEL & David Hirshleifer & AVANIDHAR SUBRAHMANYAM, 2004. "A Theory of Overconfidence, Self-Attribution, and Security Market Under- and Over-reactions," Finance 0412006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Itzhak Ben-David & John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey, 2007. "Managerial Overconfidence and Corporate Policies," NBER Working Papers 13711, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Spitzer, Sonja & Shaikh, Mujaheed, 2022. "Health misperception and healthcare utilisation among older Europeans," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    5. D. Urbig & J. Stauf & U. Weitzel, 2009. "What is your level of overconfidence? A strictly incentive compatible measurement of absolute and relative overconfidence," Working Papers 09-20, Utrecht School of Economics.
    6. Schwab, Abraham P., 2008. "Putting cognitive psychology to work: Improving decision-making in the medical encounter," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 67(11), pages 1861-1869, December.
    7. Terrance Odean., 1996. "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Trader Are Above Average," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-266, University of California at Berkeley.
    8. Hardeep Singh Mundi & Parmjit Kaur, 2019. "Impact of CEO Overconfidence on Firm Performance: An Evidence from S&P BSE 200," Vision, , vol. 23(3), pages 234-243, September.
    9. Daniel J. Walters & Philip M. Fernbach & Craig R. Fox & Steven A. Sloman, 2017. "Known Unknowns: A Critical Determinant of Confidence and Calibration," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(12), pages 4298-4307, December.
    10. Basov, S., 2001. "A Noisy Model of Individual Behaviour," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 791, The University of Melbourne.
    11. Maria De Paola & Francesca Gioia & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2013. "Overconfidence, Omens And Emotions: Results From A Field Experiment," Framed Field Experiments 00395, The Field Experiments Website.
    12. Hardeep Singh Mundi & Parmjit Kaur, 2022. "CEO Overconfidence and Capital Structure Decisions: Evidence from India," Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers, , vol. 47(1), pages 19-37, March.
    13. Itzhak Ben-David & John R. Graham, 2013. "Managerial Miscalibration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1547-1584.
    14. Kovacs, Roxanne J. & Lagarde, Mylene & Cairns, John, 2020. "Overconfident health workers provide lower quality healthcare," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    15. Nejat Anbarci & Jungmin Lee & Aydogan Ulker, 2016. "Win at All Costs or Lose Gracefully in High-Stakes Competition? Gender Differences in Professional Tennis," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(4), pages 323-353, May.
    16. Shapira-Ettinger Keren & Shapira Ron A., 2008. "The Constructive Value of Overconfidence," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(3), pages 751-778, December.
    17. Katja Rost & Margit Osterloh, 2008. "You Pay a Fee for Strong Beliefs: Homogeneity as a Driver of Corporate Governance Failure," CREMA Working Paper Series 2008-28, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).

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