IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jecfin/v44y2020i3d10.1007_s12197-019-09499-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are earnings predictable?

Author

Listed:
  • Shahram Amini

    (University of Denver)

  • Vijay Singal

    (Virginia Tech)

Abstract

We find that market reactions to earnings announcements can be predictable. Four-factor abnormal returns to earnings announcements that follow buyback announcements are higher by 5.1% than similar returns to earnings announcements that follow equity issues over the (− 1,+ 30) window; the difference is 2.2% when unadjusted returns are used. The magnitude is large and economically and statistically significant. The drift in these returns is unrelated and distinct from the post-earnings announcement drift. For example, we find positive drift for firms making buyback announcements even when they exhibit negative earnings surprises and find negative drift for firms issuing equity even when they show positive earnings surprises. Since the study looks at short periods around earnings announcements, it does not suffer from benchmarking errors that may influence long-horizon returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Shahram Amini & Vijay Singal, 2020. "Are earnings predictable?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(3), pages 528-562, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:44:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s12197-019-09499-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s12197-019-09499-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12197-019-09499-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12197-019-09499-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hovakimian, Armen & Opler, Tim & Titman, Sheridan, 2001. "The Debt-Equity Choice," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 1-24, March.
    2. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
    4. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    5. Guojin Gong & Henock Louis & Amy X. Sun, 2008. "Earnings Management and Firm Performance Following Open‐Market Repurchases," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 947-986, April.
    6. Ikenberry, David & Lakonishok, Josef & Vermaelen, Theo, 1995. "Market underreaction to open market share repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 181-208.
    7. Lakonishok, Josef & Vermaelen, Theo, 1990. "Anomalous Price Behavior around Repurchase Tender Offers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 455-477, June.
    8. Bartov, Eli & Givoly, Dan & Hayn, Carla, 2002. "The rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 173-204, June.
    9. Brockman, Paul & Khurana, Inder K. & Martin, Xiumin, 2008. "Voluntary disclosures around share repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 175-191, July.
    10. Brav, Alon & Gompers, Paul A, 1997. "Myth or Reality? The Long-Run Underperformance of Initial Public Offerings: Evidence from Venture and Nonventure Capital-Backed Companies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1791-1821, December.
    11. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R. & Rydqvist, Kristian, 1995. "Initial public offerings: International insights," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 139-140, May.
    12. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Zhang, Feng, 2013. "Firm characteristics and long-run stock returns after corporate events," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 83-102.
    13. Bartov, Eli, 1991. "Open-market stock repurchases as signals for earnings and risk changes," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 275-294, September.
    14. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
    15. Taggart, Robert A, Jr, 1977. "A Model of Corporate Financing Decisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(5), pages 1467-1484, December.
    16. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1997. "The Operating Performance of Firms Conducting Seasoned Equity Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1823-1850, December.
    17. Urs Peyer, 2009. "The Nature and Persistence of Buyback Anomalies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(4), pages 1693-1745, April.
    18. Chan, Konan & Ikenberry, David & Lee, Inmoo, 2004. "Economic Sources of Gain in Stock Repurchases," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 461-479, September.
    19. Jo, Hoje & Kim, Yongtae, 2007. "Disclosure frequency and earnings management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 561-590, May.
    20. Tarsalewska, Monika, 2018. "Buyouts under the threat of preemption," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 39-58.
    21. Murali Jagannathan & Clifford Stephens, 2003. "Motives for Multiple Open-Market Repurchase Programs," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 32(2), Summer.
    22. Ikenberry, David L. & Rankine, Graeme & Stice, Earl K., 1996. "What Do Stock Splits Really Signal?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(3), pages 357-375, September.
    23. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Stulz, René M., 2010. "Seasoned equity offerings, market timing, and the corporate lifecycle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 275-295, March.
    24. DuCharme, Larry L. & Malatesta, Paul H. & Sefcik, Stephan E., 2004. "Earnings management, stock issues, and shareholder lawsuits," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 27-49, January.
    25. Brav, Alon & Geczy, Christopher & Gompers, Paul A., 2000. "Is the abnormal return following equity issuances anomalous?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 209-249, May.
    26. Eckbo, B. Espen & Masulis, Ronald W. & Norli, Oyvind, 2000. "Seasoned public offerings: resolution of the 'new issues puzzle'," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 251-291, May.
    27. Lesmond, David A & Ogden, Joseph P & Trzcinka, Charles A, 1999. "A New Estimate of Transaction Costs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 1113-1141.
    28. Ferhat Akbas, 2016. "The Calm before the Storm," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 225-266, February.
    29. Cohen, Daniel A. & Zarowin, Paul, 2010. "Accrual-based and real earnings management activities around seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 2-19, May.
    30. Miller, Merton H & Rock, Kevin, 1985. "Dividend Policy under Asymmetric Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1031-1051, September.
    31. Fangjian Fu, 2010. "Overinvestment and the Operating Performance of SEO Firms," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 249-272, March.
    32. Terence Lim, 2001. "Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 369-385, February.
    33. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. "The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March.
    34. Amy Dittmar & Anjan Thakor, 2007. "Why Do Firms Issue Equity?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 1-54, February.
    35. Dirk Jenter, 2005. "Market Timing and Managerial Portfolio Decisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1903-1949, August.
    36. Shane A. Corwin & Paul Schultz, 2012. "A Simple Way to Estimate Bid‐Ask Spreads from Daily High and Low Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 719-760, April.
    37. Chan, Konan & Ikenberry, David L. & Lee, Inmoo, 2007. "Do managers time the market? Evidence from open-market share repurchases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2673-2694, September.
    38. Barber, Brad M. & Lyon, John D., 1997. "Detecting long-run abnormal stock returns: The empirical power and specification of test statistics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 341-372, March.
    39. Venkatesh, P C & Chiang, R, 1986. "Information Asymmetry and the Dealer's Bid-Ask Spread: A Case Study of Earnings and Dividend Announcements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(5), pages 1089-1102, December.
    40. Bolton, Patrick & Chen, Hui & Wang, Neng, 2013. "Market timing, investment, and risk management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 40-62.
    41. Jung, Kooyul & Yong-Cheol, Kim & Stulz, Rene M., 1996. "Timing, investment opportunities, managerial discretion, and the security issue decision," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 159-185, October.
    42. Alon Brav, 2000. "Inference in Long‐Horizon Event Studies: A Bayesian Approach with Application to Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1979-2016, October.
    43. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2002. "Market Timing and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 1-32, February.
    44. Korajczyk, Robert A & Lucas, Deborah J & McDonald, Robert L, 1991. "The Effect of Information Releases on the Pricing and Timing of Equity Issues," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 685-708.
    45. Marsh, Paul, 1982. "The Choice between Equity and Debt: An Empirical Study," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 121-144, March.
    46. Dittmar, Amy & Field, Laura Casares, 2015. "Can managers time the market? Evidence using repurchase price data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 261-282.
    47. John D. Lyon & Brad M. Barber & Chih‐Ling Tsai, 1999. "Improved Methods for Tests of Long‐Run Abnormal Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 165-201, February.
    48. Vermaelen, Theo, 1981. "Common stock repurchases and market signalling : An empirical study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 139-183, June.
    49. Michaely, Roni & Thaler, Richard H & Womack, Kent L, 1995. "Price Reactions to Dividend Initiations and Omissions: Overreaction or Drift?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 573-608, June.
    50. Gustavo Grullon & Roni Michaely, 2004. "The Information Content of Share Repurchase Programs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 651-680, April.
    51. Roll, Richard, 1984. "A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-1139, September.
    52. Ritter, Jay R, 1991. "The Long-run Performance of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-27, March.
    53. Boehmer, Ekkehart & Huszar, Zsuzsa R. & Jordan, Bradford D., 2010. "The good news in short interest," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 80-97, April.
    54. Narasimhan Jegadeesh, 2000. "Long-Term Performance of Seasoned Equity Offerings: Benchmark Errors and Biases in Expectations," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 29(3), Fall.
    55. Cusatis, Patrick J. & Miles, James A. & Woolridge, J. Randall, 1993. "Restructuring through spinoffs*1: The stock market evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 293-311, June.
    56. Agrawal, Anup & Jaffe, Jeffrey F & Mandelker, Gershon N, 1992. "The Post-merger Performance of Acquiring Firms: A Re-examination of an Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1605-1621, September.
    57. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2003. "Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 313-351, February.
    58. Ming Dong & Igor Loncarski & Jenke ter Horst & Chris Veld, 2012. "What Drives Security Issuance Decisions: Market Timing, Pecking Order, or Both?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 41(3), pages 637-663, September.
    59. Lie, Erik, 2005. "Operating performance following open market share repurchase announcements," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 411-436, September.
    60. Healy, Paul M. & Palepu, Krishna G., 2001. "Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 405-440, September.
    61. Asquith, Paul & Mullins, David Jr., 1986. "Equity issues and offering dilution," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 61-89.
    62. Du, Qianqian & Shen, Rui, 2018. "Peer performance and earnings management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 125-137.
    63. Rajan, Raghuram & Servaes, Henri, 1997. "Analyst Following of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 507-529, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Yi-Wen & Chou, Robin K. & Lin, Chu-Bin, 2019. "Investor sentiment, SEO market timing, and stock price performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 28-43.
    2. Malcolm Baker & Richard S. Ruback & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Vogt, Jan, 2023. "Managerial market timing under credit risk: How do timed buybacks and stock issuances influence the value of long-term shareholders?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    4. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2002. "Market Timing and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 1-32, February.
    5. Fangjian Fu & Sheng Huang, 2016. "The Persistence of Long-Run Abnormal Returns Following Stock Repurchases and Offerings," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(4), pages 964-984, April.
    6. Altı, Aydoğan & Sulaeman, Johan, 2012. "When do high stock returns trigger equity issues?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 61-87.
    7. Lan, Yueqin & Huang, Yong & Yan, Chao, 2021. "Investor sentiment and stock price: Empirical evidence from Chinese SEOs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 703-714.
    8. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Wang, Yanzhi, 2012. "Financial constraints and share repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 311-331.
    9. Dionysia Dionysiou, 2015. "Choosing Among Alternative Long-Run Event-Study Techniques," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 158-198, February.
    10. Pawel Bilinski & Norman Strong, 2013. "Managers’ Private Information, Investor Underreaction and Long†Run SEO Performance," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 19(5), pages 956-990, November.
    11. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2012. "Market timing, taxes and capital structure: evidence from Vietnam," OSF Preprints t3mvs, Center for Open Science.
    12. Mohamed Albaity & Diana Syafiza Said, 2016. "Impact of Open-Market Share Repurchases on Long-Term Stock Returns," SAGE Open, , vol. 6(4), pages 21582440166, October.
    13. Wadhwa, Kavita & Neupane, Suman & Syamala, Sudhakara Reddy, 2019. "Do group-affiliated firms time their equity offerings?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 73-92.
    14. Chiu, Yung-Chin & Liang, Woan-lih, 2015. "Do firms manipulate earnings before accelerated share repurchases?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 86-95.
    15. Chan, Konan & Ikenberry, David L. & Lee, Inmoo, 2007. "Do managers time the market? Evidence from open-market share repurchases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2673-2694, September.
    16. Chan, Konan & Ikenberry, David L. & Lee, Inmoo & Wang, Yanzhi, 2010. "Share repurchases as a potential tool to mislead investors," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 137-158, April.
    17. Andrikopoulos, Panagiotis, 2009. "Seasoned equity offerings, operating performance and overconfidence: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 189-215.
    18. Konan Chan & Nandkumar Nayar & Ajai K. Singh & Wen Yu, 2018. "Information Content of Offer Date Revelations: A Fresh Look at Seasoned Equity Offerings," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(3), pages 519-552, September.
    19. Kolari, James W. & Pynnonen, Seppo & Tuncez, Ahmet M., 2021. "Further evidence on long-run abnormal returns after corporate events," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 421-439.
    20. Fei Leng & Kevin Zhao, 2014. "Insider trading around open-market share repurchases," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(3), pages 461-491, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Earnings predictability; Buybacks/Repurchases; Equity issues; SEOs; Information asymmetry; Market efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G35 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Payout Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:44:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s12197-019-09499-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.