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Improved Methods for Tests of Long-Run Abnormal Stock Returns

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Author Info
John D. Lyon (Graduate School of Management, University of California, Davis)
Brad M. Barber (Graduate School of Management, University of California, Davis)
Chih-Ling Tsai (Graduate School of Management, University of California, Davis)
Abstract

We analyze tests for long-run abnormal returns and document that two approaches yield well-specified test statistics in random samples. The first uses a traditional event study framework and buy-and-hold abnormal returns calculated using carefully constructed reference portfolios. Inference is based on either a skewness-adjusted "t"-statistic or the empirically generated distribution of long-run abnormal returns. The second approach is based on calculation of mean monthly abnormal returns using calendar-time portfolios and a time-series "t"-statistic. Though both approaches perform well in random samples, misspecification in nonrandom samples is pervasive. Thus, analysis of long-run abnormal returns is treacherous. Copyright The American Finance Association 1999.

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Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 54 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 165-201
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:54:y:1999:i:1:p:165-201

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