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A Study of Economists' Consensus Forecasts

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Author Info

  • David Ahlers

    (Cornell University)

  • Josef Lakonishok

    (Tei-Aviv University)

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    Abstract

    This study examines the ability of economists to forecast ten major economic series. The data for this study were provided by J. A. Livingston of the Philadelphia Inquirer, who since 1947 has collected forecasts for the upcoming 6 and 12 months. The results reveal that, in general, for the period from 1947 through 1978, the economists in Livingston's sample did not produce efficient forecasts and were not able to outperform simple statistical models. It should be noted, however, that a substantial and consistent improvement in forecasting performance by economists in Livingston's sample did occur over this same period. These results contain important information for managers who use macro-economic consensus forecasts.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.29.10.1113
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

    Volume (Year): 29 (1983)
    Issue (Month): 10 (October)
    Pages: 1113-1125

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    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:29:y:1983:i:10:p:1113-1125

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    Related research

    Keywords: consensus forecasts; macro-economic variables; efficient forecasts; forecast errors;

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    Cited by:
    1. Auguste Mpacko Priso & Sandrine Lardic, 1999. "Une comparaison des prévisions des experts à celles issues des modèles B VAR," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 140(4), pages 161-180.
    2. Rolando Pelàez, 2007. "Ex ante forecasts of business-cycle turning points," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 239-246, April.

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