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The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?

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  • Olivier Coibion
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko
  • Johannes Wieland

Abstract

We study the effects of positive steady-state inflation in New Keynesian models subject to the zero bound on interest rates. We derive the utility-based welfare loss function taking into account the effects of positive steady-state inflation and solve for the optimal level of inflation in the model. For plausible calibrations with costly but infrequent episodes at the zero lower bound, the optimal inflation rate is low, typically

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rds013
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 79 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 1371-1406

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Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:79:y:2012:i:4:p:1371-1406

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  1. Burnside, Craig, 1996. "Production function regressions, returns to scale, and externalities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 177-201, April.
  2. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," NBER Working Papers 14621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Peter J. Klenow & Benjamin A. Malin, 2010. "Microeconomic Evidence on Price-Setting," NBER Working Papers 15826, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "The Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefits of Stabilization: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes F. Wieland, 2010. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models," NBER Working Papers 16093, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Mark Zbaracki & Mark Ritson & Daniel Levy & Shantanu Dutta & Mark Bergen, 2004. "Managerial and Customer Costs of Price Adjustment: Direct Evidence from Industrial Markets," Macroeconomics 0402020, EconWPA.
  7. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2010. "Optimal Target Criteria for Stabilization Policy," NBER Working Papers 15757, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Bodenstein, Martin & Erceg, Christopher & Guerrieri, Luca, 2010. "The Effects of Foreign Shocks When Interest Rates Are at Zero," CEPR Discussion Papers 8006, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Bhaskar, V, 2002. "On Endogenously Staggered Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(1), pages 97-116, January.
  10. Michael Kiley, 2004. "Is Moderate-To-High Inflation Inherently Unstable?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 193, Econometric Society.
  11. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2009. "Trend inflation, Taylor principle and indeterminacy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 708, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  12. KIM, Jinill & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2007. "How Much Inflation is Necessary to Grease the Wheels?," Cahiers de recherche 11-2007, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  13. William T. Dickens & Lorenz Goette & Erica L. Groshen & Steinar Holden & Julian Messina & Mark E. Schweitzer & Jarkko Turunen & Melanie E. Ward, 2006. "How wages change : micro evidence from the International Wage Flexibility Project," Working Paper Research 96, National Bank of Belgium.
  14. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Serena Ng, 2009. "Estimation of DSGE Models When the Data are Persistent," NBER Working Papers 15187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Robert Amano & Malik Shukayev, 2009. "Risk Premium Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Working Papers 09-27, Bank of Canada.
  16. Ariel Burstein & Christian Hellwig, 2008. "Welfare Costs of Inflation in a Menu Cost Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 438-43, May.
  17. Romer, David, 1990. "Staggered price setting with endogenous frequency of adjustment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 205-210, March.
  18. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464, November.
  19. Roberto M. Billi, 2011. "Optimal Inflation for the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 29-52, July.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Is it possible to raise the inflation target?
    by Mainly Macro in Mainly Macro on 2013-08-06 10:17:00
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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Cited by:
  1. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Jae Song & Dmitriy Stolyarov, 2013. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Retirement Timing," Working Papers wp281, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  2. Kaufmann, Daniel & Bäurle, Gregor, 2013. "Exchange Rate and Price Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79872, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  3. Hatcher, Michael C. & Minford, Patrick, 2013. "Stabilization policy, rational expectations and price-level versus inflation targeting: a survey," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2013/14, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  4. Ahrens, Steffen & Snower, Dennis J., 2014. "Envy, guilt, and the Phillips curve," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 69-84.
  5. William T. Gavin & Benjamin D. Keen & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2013. "Global Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-17, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
  6. William B. English & J. David López-Salido & Robert J. Tetlow, 2013. "The Federal Reserve's framework for monetary policy - recent changes and new questions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-76, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Is The Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 19598, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. repec:jhu:papers:607 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2013. "Are Sticky Prices Costly? Evidence From The Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 18860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Patrizio Tirelli & Nicola Acocella, 2013. "The comeback of inflation as an optimal public finance tool," Working Papers 263, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
  11. Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2013. "Is the Divine Coincidence Just a Coincidence? The Implications of Trend Inflation," Working Papers Series 329, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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