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Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Deflationary Japan: How Effective is the Yen’s Depreciation for Fighting Deflation?

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  • Eiji Fujii

Abstract

There is an increasing endorsement for the yen’s depreciation as a means to fight the ongoing deflation in Japan. The idea of generating inflation via depreciation relies on the assumption that exporters pass-through most of the effect of the exchange rate changes to the Japanese importers and consumers. A recent study by Taylor (2000), however, suggests that the rate of the pass-through may have declined in many countries making depreciation of domestic currencies less inflationary. In this study, we estimate the degree of exchange rate pass-through to the Japanese imports, focusing on the recent deflationary period. We then assess quantitatively the expected effectiveness of depreciation in taming the deflation. Our empirical results indicate that the long-run import pass-through has indeed declined significantly. As a result, the inflationary effect of depreciation has been reduced substantially over the past two decades.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1134.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1134

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Keywords: pass-through; exchange rate; deflation; Japan;

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  1. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
  2. Dalia Hakura & Ehsan U. Choudhri, 2001. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices: Does the Inflationary Environment Matter?," IMF Working Papers 01/194, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Gagnon, Joseph E. & Knetter, Michael M., 1995. "Markup adjustment and exchange rate fluctuations: evidence from panel data on automobile exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 289-310, April.
  4. Robert C. Feenstra, 1987. "Symmetric Pass-Through of Tariffs and Exchange Rates Under Imperfect Competition: An Empirical Test," NBER Working Papers 2453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "Exchange rates and traded goods prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 45-68, February.
  6. Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane Ihrig, 2001. "Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 704, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Otani, Akira & Shiratsuka, Shigenori & Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2003. "The Decline in the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence from Japanese Import Prices," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(3), pages 53-81, October.
  8. Sazanami, Yoko & Kimura, Fukunari & Kawai, Hiroki, 1997. "Sectoral Price Movements under the Yen Appreciation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 611-641, December.
  9. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
  10. Campa, Jose M. & Goldberg, Linda S., 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: A macro or micro phenomenon?," IESE Research Papers D/475, IESE Business School.
  11. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2003. "Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others," NBER Working Papers 10195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Pricing to market in Japanese manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 217-236, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Mehrotra, Aaron, 2005. "Exchange and interest rate channels during a deflationary era - Evidence from Japan, Hong Kong and China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

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