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Wage-Price Dynamics, the Labour Market and Deflation in Hong Kong

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  • Weshah A. Razzak

    (Labour Market Policy Group)

Abstract

Since 1998 Hong Kong has experienced over 16 quarters of deflation. Some asset prices such as factory and office space prices started to fall in early 1990s, a long time before the Asian crisis. The number of firms and businesses that have moved out of Hong Kong are not readily available, but it is quite plausible that firms and businesses relocated to the Mainland because they expected future marginal costs to fall in response to Hong Kong¡¦s handover to China in 1997. We estimate a Phillips curve specification, where changes in the price level are a function of expected inflation and the marginal cost. This model outperforms (in-and-out-of-sample) the traditional Phillips curve specification and other models of wage-price dynamics. Because the marginal cost is basically unit labour cost, the model suggests that wage and productivity dynamics play an important role in explaining price dynamics.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 242003.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:242003

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Related research

Keywords: Deflation; Phillips curve; Wages; Real Marginal Cost; Mark-up;

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References

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  1. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  2. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  3. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1999. "The Cyclical Behavior of Prices and Costs," NBER Working Papers 6909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence Katz, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Hans Genberg & Laurent Pauwels, 2003. "Inlation in Hong Kong, SAR- In Search of a Transmission Mechanism," Working Papers 012003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  6. Elliott, Graham, 1999. "Efficient Tests for a Unit Root When the Initial Observation Is Drawn from Its Unconditional Distribution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 767-83, August.
  7. David Card, 1995. "The Wage Curve: A Review," Working Papers 722, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  8. Alastair Hall & Fernanda P. M. Peixe, 2000. "A Consistent Method for the Selection of Relevant Instruments," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0790, Econometric Society.
  9. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "An Introduction to the Wage Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 153-167, Summer.
  10. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
  11. Bennett T. McCallum, 1993. "Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Critical Issues," NBER Working Papers 4368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Blagov , Boris & Funke, Michael, 2013. "The regime-dependent evolution of credibility: A fresh look at Hong Kong’s linked exchange rate system," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  2. Paul D. McNelis, 2009. "Structural Change and Counterfactual Inflation-Targeting in Hong Kong," Working Papers 232009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

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