IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofitp/bdp2013_024.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The regime-dependent evolution of credibility: A fresh look at Hong Kong s linked exchange rate system

Author

Listed:
  • Blagov, Boris
  • Funke, Michael

Abstract

An estimated Markov-switching DSGE modelling framework that allows for parameter shifts across regimes is employed to test the hypothesis of regime-dependent credibility of Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system. The model distinguishes two regimes with respect to the time-series properties of the risk premium. Regime-dependent impulse responses to macroeconomic shocks reveal substantial differences in spreads. These findings contribute to efforts at modelling exchange rate regime credibility as a non-linear process with two distinct regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Blagov, Boris & Funke, Michael, 2013. "The regime-dependent evolution of credibility: A fresh look at Hong Kong s linked exchange rate system," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2013, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2013_024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/212779/1/bofit-dp2013-024.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    2. Pierpaolo Benigno, 2009. "Price Stability with Imperfect Financial Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 121-149, February.
    3. Singh, Nirvikar, 2009. "Essays on India’s Economic Growth," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt9qr7z6x1, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    4. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2009. "The Economics of Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012634, December.
    5. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2010. "Macroeconomics after the Crisis: Time to Deal with the Pretense-of-Knowledge Syndrome," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 85-102, Fall.
    6. Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul, 2000. "Currency crises, sunspots and Markov-switching regimes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 327-350, April.
    7. Ito, Takatoshi & Krueger, Anne O. (ed.), 2001. "Regional and Global Capital Flows," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226386768, December.
    8. Hans Genberg & Laurent L. Pauwels, 2003. "An Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Evidence from Hong Kong," IHEID Working Papers 03-2003, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    9. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2009. "Economic transition and growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1153-1185.
    10. Philippe Aghion & Diego Comin & Peter Howitt & Isabel Tecu, 2016. "When Does Domestic Savings Matter for Economic Growth?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 381-407, August.
    11. Francesco Bianchi, 2013. "Regime Switches, Agents' Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 463-490.
    12. Andrew Foerster & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2013. "Perturbation methods for Markov-switching DSGE models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2013-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    13. Katarina Keller & Panu Poutvaara & Andreas Wagener, 2009. "Military Draft And Economic Growth In Oecd Countries," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(5), pages 373-393, October.
    14. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
    15. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open‐economy model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 93-128, January.
    16. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
    17. Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael & Pytlarczyk, Ernest, 2011. "Stock market wealth effects in an estimated DSGE model for Hong Kong," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 316-334, January.
    18. Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael, 2013. "Housing prices and the business cycle: An empirical application to Hong Kong," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 62-76.
    19. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
    20. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 607-635, June.
    21. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2011. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2150-2166.
    22. Engel, Charles, 1994. "Can the Markov switching model forecast exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 151-165, February.
    23. A. G. Malliaris & Jorge L. Urrutia, 2005. "The International Crash of October 1987: Causality Tests," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Economic Uncertainty, Instabilities And Asset Bubbles Selected Essays, chapter 16, pages 251-262, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    24. Yum K. Kwan & Francis T. Lui & Leonard K. Cheng, 2001. "Credibility of Hong Kong's Currency Board: The Role of Institutional Arrangements," NBER Chapters, in: Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, pages 233-259, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    26. Andrew Foerster & Juan F. Rubio‐Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2016. "Perturbation methods for Markov‐switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(2), pages 637-669, July.
    27. Maria‐Angels Oliva & Luis A. Rivera‐Batiz & Amadou N. R. Sy, 2001. "Discipline, Signaling, and Currency Boards," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 608-625, November.
    28. Michael Cheng & Wai-Yip Alex Ho, 2009. "A Structural Investigation into the Price and Wage Dynamics in Hong Kong," Working Papers 0920, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    29. Seppo Honkapohja & Frank Westermann, 2009. "Economic Growth in the European Union," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Seppo Honkapohja & Frank Westermann (ed.), Designing the European Model, chapter 8, pages 259-295, Palgrave Macmillan.
    30. Martin Andreasen, 2010. "How to Maximize the Likelihood Function for a DSGE Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 127-154, February.
    31. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    32. Hans Genberg & LaurentL. Pauwels, 2005. "An Open-Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Evidence From Hong Kong," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 261-277, June.
    33. Weshah A. Razzak, 2003. "Wage-Price Dynamics, the Labour Market and Deflation in Hong Kong," Working Papers 242003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    34. Sims, Christopher A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2008. "Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 255-274, October.
    35. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
    36. Hans Genberg & Cho-Hoi Hui, 2011. "The Credibility of Hong Kong's Link from the Perspective of Modern Financial Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 185-206, February.
    37. Oliva, Maria-Angels & Rivera-Batiz, Luis A & Sy, Amadou N R, 2001. "Discipline, Signaling, and Currency Boards," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 608-625, November.
    38. Steven N. Durlauf & Paul A. Johnson & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2009. "The Methods of Growth Econometrics," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terence C. Mills & Kerry Patterson (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, chapter 24, pages 1119-1179, Palgrave Macmillan.
    39. -, 2009. "Economic growth in the Caribbean," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38668, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    40. De Grauwe, Paul & Rovira Kaltwasser, Pablo, 2012. "Animal spirits in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1176-1192.
    41. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
    42. Mouratidis, Kostas, 2008. "Evaluating currency crises: A Bayesian Markov switching approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1688-1711, December.
    43. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:zbw:bofitp:2014_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Boris Blagov & Michael Funke, 2016. "The Credibility of Hong Kong's Currency Board System: Looking Through the Prism of MS-VAR Models with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 895-914, December.
    3. Feng, Shu & Fu, Liang & Ho, Chun-Yu & Alex Ho, Wai-Yip, 2023. "Political stability and credibility of currency board," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Blagov, Boris & Funke, Michael, 2019. "The Regime-Dependent Evolution Of Credibility: A Fresh Look At Hong Kong'S Linked Exchange Rate System," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(6), pages 2434-2468, September.
    3. Boris Blagov, 2018. "Financial crises and time-varying risk premia in a small open economy: a Markov-switching DSGE model for Estonia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1017-1060, May.
    4. Shayan Zakipour-Saber, 2019. "Monetary policy regimes and inflation persistence in the United Kingdom," Working Papers 895, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    5. Sulekha Hembram & Souparna Maji & Sushil Kr. Haldar, 2019. "Club Convergence among the Major Indian States During 1982–2014: Does Investment in Human Capital Matter?," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 20(2), pages 184-204, September.
    6. Tobias Schlegel & Curdin Pfister & Dietmar Harhoff & Uschi Backes-Gellner, 2022. "Innovation effects of universities of applied sciences: an assessment of regional heterogeneity," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 63-118, February.
    7. Magnus Henrekson & Dan Johansson & Johan Karlsson, 2024. "To Be or Not to Be: The Entrepreneur in Neo-Schumpeterian Growth Theory," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 48(1), pages 104-140, January.
    8. Alireza Motameni, 2021. "The Impact of Oil Rent, Currency Overvaluation, and Institution Quality, on Economic Growth of Oil-Rich Countries: A Heterogeneous Panel Data Study," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 483-493.
    9. Rafael Torres Gaviria, 2022. "Horsemen of the apocalypse: The Mongol Empire and the great divergence," Documentos CEDE 20533, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    10. Xiaoshan Chen & Ronald Macdonald, 2012. "Realized and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov‐Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(6), pages 1091-1116, September.
    11. Gebs, Mehdi & Nabi, Mahmoud Sami, 2021. "The economic impacts of digitalization through an extended input-output model: theory and application to Tunisia," MPRA Paper 113299, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Angelopoulos, Angelos & Economides, George & Liontos, George & Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Sakkas, Stelios, 2022. "Public redistributive policies in general equilibrium: An application to Greece," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    13. Esteban Colla‐De‐Robertis & Rafael Garduno Rivera, 2021. "The effect of a free trade agreement with the United States on member countries' per capita GDP: A synthetic control analysis," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 1129-1145, August.
    14. Kai Zhao, 2021. "Competition of International Trade, Technology Spillover, and R&D Innovation," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 676-694, June.
    15. Funke, Michael & Yu, Hao, 2011. "The emergence and spatial distribution of Chinese seaport cities," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 196-209, June.
    16. Ujjaini Mukhopadhyay, 2021. "Differential Education Subsidy Policy and Wage Inequality Between Skilled, Semi-skilled and Unskilled Labour: A General Equilibrium Approach," Review of Development and Change, , vol. 26(1), pages 40-62, June.
    17. George Economides & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Stylianos Sakkas, 2021. "Redistributive policies in general equilibrium," JRC Working Papers on Territorial Modelling and Analysis 2021-08, Joint Research Centre.
    18. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Song, Malin & Ahmad, Shabbir & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Does economic growth stimulate energy consumption? The role of human capital and R&D expenditures in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    19. Rojas Cama, Freddy A. & Emara, Noha, 2022. "Financial inclusion and gross capital formation: A sectoral analysis approach for the MENA region and EMs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    20. Fernandes, Leonardo H.S. & de Araújo, Fernando H.A. & Silva, Igor E.M. & Neto, Jusie S.P., 2021. "Macroeconophysics indicator of economic efficiency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 573(C).
    21. Philippe Askenazy & Gilbert Cette & Paul Maarek, 2018. "Rent‐Sharing and Workers' Bargaining Power: An Empirical Cross‐Country/ Cross‐Industry Panel Analysis," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 120(2), pages 563-596, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov-switching DSGE models; exchange rate regime credibility; Hong Kong;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2013_024. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofitfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.