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The Credibility of Hong Kong's Link from the Perspective of Modern Financial Theory

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  • HANS GENBERG
  • CHO-HOI HUI

Abstract

Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system (LERS) has been in operation since 1983, during which time many other fixed exchange rate systems have succumbed to shocks and/or speculative attacks. This paper investigates how market participants assessed changes made to the LERS by using the tools of modern finance to extract information from financial asset prices about market expectations. These changes have been characterized as making the system less discretionary over time. We find that decreasing the discretionary element of the LERS led to an increase in credibility of the arrangement.
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Suggested Citation

  • Hans Genberg & Cho-Hoi Hui, 2011. "The Credibility of Hong Kong's Link from the Perspective of Modern Financial Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 185-206, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:43:y:2011:i:1:p:185-206
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1991. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 655-665, September.
    2. Martin Eichenbaum & Craig Burnside & Sergio Rebelo, 2007. "The Returns to Currency Speculation in Emerging Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 333-338, May.
    3. Garman, Mark B. & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1983. "Foreign currency option values," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 231-237, December.
    4. Laurence Fung & Ip-wing Yu, 2007. "Assessing the Credibility of The Convertibility Zone of The Hong Kong Dollar," Working Papers 0719, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    5. Tony Latter, 2007. "Rules versus discretion in managing the Hong Kong dollar, 1983-2006," Working Papers 022007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    6. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1993. "Assessing target zone credibility : Mean reversion and devaluation expectations in the ERM, 1979-1992," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 763-793, May.
    7. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:zbw:bofitp:2014_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Lo, C.F. & Hui, C.H. & Fong, T. & Chu, S.W., 2015. "A quasi-bounded target zone model — Theory and application to Hong Kong dollar," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-17.
    3. Blagov, Boris & Funke, Michael, 2019. "The Regime-Dependent Evolution Of Credibility: A Fresh Look At Hong Kong'S Linked Exchange Rate System," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(6), pages 2434-2468, September.
    4. Hertrich Markus, 2016. "The Costs of Implementing a Unilateral One-Sided Exchange Rate Target Zone," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 67(1), pages 91-120, May.
    5. Boris Blagov & Michael Funke, 2016. "The Credibility of Hong Kong's Currency Board System: Looking Through the Prism of MS-VAR Models with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 895-914, December.
    6. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Cho-Hoi Hui & Chi-Fai Lo & Po-Hon Chau, 2017. "Can Exchange Rate Dynamics in Krugman¡¯s Target-zone Model be Directly Tested?Abstract: Despite Krugman's (1991) model being a benchmark for modelling target zones, empirical support has been sparse d," Working Papers 032017, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    8. Boris Blagov & Michael Funke, 2016. "The Credibility of Hong Kong's Currency Board System: Looking Through the Prism of MS-VAR Models with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 895-914, December.
    9. David Cook & James Yetman, 2014. "Currency Boards when Interest Rates are Zero," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 135-151, February.
    10. Asa Malmstrom Rognes & Catherine R. Schenk, 2023. "One country, two currencies: The adoption of the Hong Kong currency board, 1983," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(2), pages 477-497, May.
    11. Hong Kong Monetary Authority, 2013. "Monetary operations under the Currency Board system: the experience of Hong Kong," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 145-154, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Blagov, Boris & Funke, Michael, 2019. "The Regime-Dependent Evolution Of Credibility: A Fresh Look At Hong Kong'S Linked Exchange Rate System," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(6), pages 2434-2468, September.

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