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Housing Prices and the Business Cycle: An Empirical Application to Hong Kong

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  • Michael Funke

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  • Michael Paetz

    ()

Abstract

This paper develops a two-agent, two-sector, open-economy DSGE model with a housing-market sector and a borrowing constraint. Contrary to standard conventions, domestic households are allowed to invest in foreign housing and vice versa. Using Bayesian methods, the model is applied to data for Hong Kong. We identify strong and robust housing wealth effects, and show that property prices are mainly driven by intratemporal preference perturbations rather than by disturbances in financial frictions or price mark up shocks. These disturbances also explain a non-negligible part of the volatility of consumption, GDP and employment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hamburg University, Department of Economics in its series Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 21112b.

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Date of creation: Dec 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:21112b

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Keywords: DSGE models; housing; open economy; Hong Kong;

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References

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  1. Eric Wong & Tom Fong & Ka-fai Li & Henry Choi, 2011. "Loan-to-Value Ratio as a Macro-Prudential Tool - Hong Kong's Experience and Cross-Country Evidence," Working Papers 1101, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
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  4. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2009. "Booms, Recessions and Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look at Investment Decisions under Cyclical Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 2759, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2007. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 659, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 23 Oct 2009.
  6. Iacoviello, Matteo & Minetti, Raoul, 2008. "The credit channel of monetary policy: Evidence from the housing market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 69-96, March.
  7. Ernest Pytlarczyk, 2005. "An Estimated DSGE Model for The German Economy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 318, Society for Computational Economics.
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  9. Jie Gan, 2010. "Housing Wealth and Consumption Growth: Evidence from a Large Panel of Households," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2229-2267, June.
  10. Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael, 2012. "A DSGE-Based Assessment of Nonlinear Loan-to-Value Policies: Evidence from Hong Kong," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
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  22. Calza, Alessandro & Stracca, Livio & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2009. "Housing finance and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 1069, European Central Bank.
  23. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
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  28. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Notarpietro, Alessandro, 2008. "Monetary policy and housing prices in an estimated DSGE for the US and the euro area," Working Paper Series 0972, European Central Bank.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael, 2012. "A DSGE-Based Assessment of Nonlinear Loan-to-Value Policies: Evidence from Hong Kong," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  2. Xi Chen & Michael Funke, 2013. "Renewed Momentum in the German Housing Market: Boom or Bubble?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4287, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Blagov , Boris & Funke, Michael, 2013. "The regime-dependent evolution of credibility: A fresh look at Hong Kong’s linked exchange rate system," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

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