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Detecting Bubbles in the Hong Kong Residential Property Market: An Explosive-Pattern Approach

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Author Info

  • Matthew S. Yiu

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Lu Jin

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

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    Abstract

    This study applies the newly developed bubble detection method (Phillips, Wu and Yu, 2011) to identifying asset bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market. Our empirical results show that the method is capable of detecting the 1997 bubble and is able to reveal the corresponding origination and collapse, showing its superiority over the standard unit root and co-integration method. During the period between mid-2009 and early 2011, the method indicates strong upward price pressure in the mass segment and bubble-type behaviour in two short periods of time in the luxury segment. The results, however, show potential shortcomings of the method including: the high correlation between the price-rent differentials and t-statistics near the critical values, and the symmetric property towards explosive growth and precipitant fall of the time series.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 012012.

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    Length: 18 pages
    Date of creation: Jan 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:012012

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    Related research

    Keywords: Asset Bubble; Residential Property Prices; Right-Tailed Unit Root Test; Explosive Behaviour; Price-To-Rent Ratio;

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    References

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    1. Charles Ka-Yui Leung, 2004. "Macroeconomics and Housing: A Review of the Literature," Departmental Working Papers _164, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Luigi Montrucchio & Fabio Privileggi, 2001. "On Fragility of Bubbles in Equilibrium Asset Pricing Models of Lucas-Type," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 05-2001, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    4. Chen, Nan-Kuang, 2001. "Asset price fluctuations in Taiwan: evidence from stock and real estate prices 1973 to 1992," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 215-232.
    5. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Vyacheslav Mikhed & Petr Zemčík, 2009. "Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: A Panel Data Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 366-386, May.
    7. Chang, Kuang-Liang & Chen, Nan-Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2012. "The dynamics of housing returns in Singapore: How important are the international transmission mechanisms?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 516-530.
    8. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2005. "Econometric tests of asset price bubbles: taking stock," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 2067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Chang, Kuang Liang & Chen, Nan Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2011. "In the Shadow of the United States: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns," MPRA Paper 32776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-30, September.
    12. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Intrinsic bubbles and regime-switching," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 357-373, July.
    13. Vyacheslav Mikhed & Petr Zemcik, 2007. "Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: A Panel Data Approach," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp338, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
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    Cited by:
    1. Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael, 2013. "Housing prices and the business cycle: An empirical application to Hong Kong," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 62-76.
    2. Abdullah Yavas, 2013. "Asset Price Bubbles and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 102013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

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