An Estimated DSGE Model for The German Economy
AbstractThis paper presents an estimated DSGE model for the European Monetary Union. Our approach, contrary to the previous studies, accounts for heterogeneity within the euro area. In the estimation we utilize disaggregated information, employing single country data, along with the aggregated EMU by Fagan et. al (2001). We also contribute to the literature by proposing a strategy for consistent estimation of the currency union model, using information available prior to the adoption of the single currency and afterwards. This approach requires the determination of two separate data generating processes - here these are theoretical DSGE models - corresponding to both current and historical monetary regimes. We emphasize the use of regime-switching models in the DSGE framework (in our case the threshold is known exactly and the switch is permanent). The approach is illustrated by developing a simple two-region DSGE model, with a particular focus on analyzing the German economy within EMU, and its Bayesian estimation on the sample 1980:q1- 2003:q4. Moreover, the paper offers: (i) a robustness check of the estimation results with respect to the alternative data approaches and various restrictions imposed on the model's structure (ii) assesments of the relative importance of various shocks and frictions for explaining the model dynamics (iii) an evaluation of the model's empirical properties
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 with number 318.
Date of creation: 11 Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Bayesian econometrics; DSGE models; Euro area;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
- E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
- F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-11-19 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2005-11-19 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-EEC-2005-11-19 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2005-11-19 (Macroeconomics)
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