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An Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Evidence from Hong Kong

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Author Info
Hans Genberg
Laurent L. Pauwels () (Economics Section, Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva)

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Abstract

This paper extends the new hybrid Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) to the open economy context. We hypothesise that pricing decisions depend on both labour costs and intermediate imported input prices. The results for Hong Kong are consistent with the theory if import prices are given substantial weight in measuring marginal cost, rejecting the labour costs model. We find that forward-looking behaviour is dominant, and that price stickiness is smaller in Hong Kong than in the USA. The results are sensitive to the choice of instruments, and a model using the output gap instead of marginal cost as the forcing variable also performs well.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies in its series HEI Working Papers with number 03-2003.

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Length: 23
Date of creation: Nov 2003
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Publication status: Published in Pacific Economic Review, Special Issue on Deflation and Macroeconomic Issues in Hong Kong, Volume 10, 2, 2005, pages 261-277
Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heiwp03-2003

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Keywords: New Keynesian Phillips curve; inflation dynamics; micro-foundation; open economy macroeconomics; GMM estimation; Hong Kong data.;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & David Lopez-Salido, J., 2005. "Robustness of the estimates of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1107-1118, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Sbordone, A.M., 1998. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: a New Test of Price Stickiness," Papers 653, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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  4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2001. "New tests of the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  12. John M. Roberts, 2001. "How well does the New Keynesian sticky-price model fit the data?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  13. Hans Genberg & Laurent L. Pauwels, 2002. "Inflation in Hong Kong, SAR: In search of a transmission mechanism," HEI Working Papers 09-2002, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Ball, Laurence & Romer, David, 1990. "Real Rigidities and the Non-neutrality of Money," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(2), pages 183-203, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Galí, Jordi & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3346, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Tauchen, George E. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1995. "Which Moments to Match," Working Papers 95-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  20. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael K. Salemi, 2007. "Long-run and Cyclic Movements in the Unemployment Rate in Hong Kong: A Dynamic, General Equilibrium Approach," Working Papers 192007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Nihal Bayraktar, 2008. "Contracting Models of the Phillips Curve Empirical Estimates for Middle-Income Countries," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 94, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Pami Dua & Upasna Gaur, 2009. "Determination of Inflation in an Open Economy Phillips Curve Framework-- The Case of Developed and Developing Asian Countries," Working papers 178, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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