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Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe: Just Do It

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Author Info
Flandreau, Marc
Maurel, Mathilde

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Abstract

This Paper seeks to trace the impact of monetary arrangements on trade integration and business cycle correlation, focusing on Europe in the late 19th century period as a guide for modern debates. For this purpose, we first estimate a gravity model and show that monetary arrangements were associated with substantially higher trade. The Austro-Hungarian dual monarchy, by many aspects a forerunner of Euroland, improved trade between member states by a factor of 3. Other arrangements, such as the gold standard and the Scandinavian union also impacted trade favourably. To explain this, we argue that monetary coordination, by fostering the correlation of business cycles compensate the adverse effect that the current account constraint has on trade integration. This is found to vastly compensate the negative consequences that trade integration might have on the symmetry of shocks, of which this Paper finds strong evidence, in contrast with recent empirical work.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3087.

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Date of creation: Nov 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3087

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Related research
Keywords: 19th century; endogeneity; europe; gravity equations; monetary unions; optimum currency area; trade and business cycles correlation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Eichengreen, B., 1992. "Should the Maastricht Treaty be Saved?," Princeton Studies in International Economics 74, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  2. Mélitz, Jacques, 2001. "Geography, Trade and Currency Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 2987, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Flandreau, Marc & Le Cacheux, Jacques & Zumer, Frédéric, 1998. "Stability Without a Pact? Lessons from the European Gold Standard 1880-1914," CEPR Discussion Papers 1872, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. J. Lopez-Cordova & Chris Meissner, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1003, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. A'Hearn, Brian & Woitek, Ulrich, 2001. "More international evidence on the historical properties of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 321-346, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Marc Flandreau, 2001. "The Bank, the States, and the Market: An Austro-Hungarian Tale for Euroland, 1867-1914," Working Papers 43, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  7. Engel, Charles M & Rose, Andrew K, 2001. "Currency Unions and International Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 2659, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Fatás, Antonio & Rose, Andrew K, 2001. "Do Monetary Handcuffs Restrain Leviathan? Fiscal Policy in Extreme Exchange Rate Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 2692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," International Trade 0012003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Michael R. Pakko & Howard J. Wall, 2001. "Reconsidering the trade-creating effects of a currency union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 37-46. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. James Yetman, 2003. "Currency Unions, Trade Flows, and Capital Flows," Working Papers 182003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Alan M. Taylor & Janine L. F. Wilson, 2006. "International Trade and Finance under the Two Hegemons: Complementaries in the United Kingdom 1870-1913 and the United States 1920-30," NBER Working Papers 12543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Andrew Rose, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade," NBER Working Papers 10373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "Collateral damage: trade disruption and the economic impact of war," Working Paper Series 2005-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Richard Pomfret, 2005. "Sequencing Trade and Monetary Integration," Others 0502004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Kari Alho, 2003. "The Impact of Regionalism on Trade in Europe," Discussion Papers 843, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  7. Maurel Mathilde, 2004. "Financial integration, exchange rate regimes in CEECs, and joining the EMU : Just do it..," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques j04027a, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
  8. Wolfgang Keller & Carol H. Shiue, 2008. "Institutions, Technology, and Trade," NBER Working Papers 13913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Clement van de Coevering, 2003. "Structural convergence and monetary integration in Europe," MEB Series (discontinued) 2003-20, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Maurel, Mathilde, 2002. "On the Way of EMU Enlargement towards CEECs: What is the Appropriate Exchange Rate Regime?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3409, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Kris James Mitchener & Marc Weidenmier, 2008. "Trade and Empire," NBER Working Papers 13765, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2002. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Working Papers 9072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Kris James Mitchener & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2005. "Supersanctions and Sovereign Debt Repayment," NBER Working Papers 11472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2006. "Currency Mismatches, Default Risk, and Exchange Rate Depreciation: Evidence from the End of Bimetallism," NBER Working Papers 12299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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