IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/spo/wpmain/infohdl2441-607.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe: Just Do It

Author

Listed:
  • Marc Flandreau

    (Sciences Po)

  • Mathilde Maurel

    (Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international (CNRS/Université Clermont Auvergne))

Abstract

This Paper seeks to trace the impact of monetary arrangements on trade integration and business cycle correlation, focusing on Europe in the late 19th century period as a guide for modern debates. For this purpose, we first estimate a gravity model and show that monetary arrangements were associated with substantially higher trade. The Austro-Hungarian dual monarchy, by many aspects a forerunner of Euroland, improved trade between member states by a factor of 3. Other arrangements, such as the gold standard and the Scandinavian union also impacted trade favourably. To explain this, we argue that monetary coordination, by fostering the correlation of business cycles compensate the adverse effect that the current account constraint has on trade integration. This is found to vastly compensate the negative consequences that trade integration might have on the symmetry of shocks, of which this Paper finds strong evidence, in contrast with recent empirical work.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Flandreau & Mathilde Maurel, 2001. "Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe: Just Do It," Sciences Po publications n°3087, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/607
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/607/resources/cfi-wp-mf-cepr3087.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Christopher M. Meissner, 2003. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 344-353, March.
    3. Marc Flandreau & Jacques Le Cacheux & Frédéric Zumer, 1998. "Stability without a pact? Lessons from the European gold standard, 1880—1914," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 116-162.
    4. Fatás, Antonio & Rose, Andrew K, 2001. "Do Monetary Handcuffs Restrain Leviathan? Fiscal Policy in Extreme Exchange Rate Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 2692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72, January.
    6. Georges Ménil & Mathilde Maurel, 1994. "Breaking up a customs union: The case of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1919," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(3), pages 553-575, September.
    7. Michael R. Pakko & Howard J. Wall, 2001. "Reconsidering the trade-creating effects of a currency union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(May), pages 37-46.
    8. Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001. "Borders and business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
    9. Rose, Andrew K & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Currency Unions and International Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1067-1089, November.
    10. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Melitz, Jacques, 2001. "Geography, Trade and Currency Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 2987, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
    13. Marc Flandreau, 2001. "The Bank, the States, and the Market: an Austro-Hungarian Tale for Euroland, 1867-1914," Sciences Po publications n°43, Sciences Po.
    14. Eichengreen, B., 1992. "Should the Maastricht Treaty be Saved?," Princeton Studies in International Economics 74, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    15. Flandreau, Marc, 2000. "The economics and politics of monetary unions: a reassessment of the Latin Monetary Union, 1865–71," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 25-44, April.
    16. Frédéric Zumer & Jacques Le Cacheux & Marc Flandreau, 1998. "Stability without a pact? Lessons from the European Gold Standard, 1880-1913," Working Papers hal-01037858, HAL.
    17. A'Hearn, Brian & Woitek, Ulrich, 2001. "More international evidence on the historical properties of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 321-346, April.
    18. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/645 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luigi Pascali, 2017. "The Wind of Change: Maritime Technology, Trade, and Economic Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(9), pages 2821-2854, September.
    2. Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 102-127, February.
    3. Ritschl, Albrecht & Wolf, Nikolaus, 2003. "Endogeneity of Currency Areas and Trade Blocs: Evidence from the Inter-war Period," CEPR Discussion Papers 4112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Andrew K. Rose & T. D. Stanley, 2005. "A Meta‐Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 347-365, July.
    5. Michael D Bordo & Christopher M Meissner & Marc D Weidenmier, 2006. "Currency Mismatches, Default Risk, and Exchange Rate Depreciation: Evidence from the End of Bimetallism," WEF Working Papers 0010, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    6. Taylor, Alan M. & Wilson, Janine, 2006. "International Trade and Finance under the Two Hegemons: Complementarities in the United Kingdom (1870-1913) and the United States (1920-30)," CEPR Discussion Papers 5846, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Mathilde Maurel, 2004. "Financial Integration, Exchange Rate Regimes in CEECs, and joining the EMU : Just Do It," Sciences Po publications n°650, Sciences Po.
    8. Jayjit Roy, 2014. "On the robustness of the trade-inducing effects of trade agreements and currency unions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 253-304, August.
    9. Kris James Mitchener & Marc Weidenmier, 2008. "Trade and Empire," NBER Working Papers 13765, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Mitchener, Kris James & Weidenmier, Marc, 2015. "Was the Classical Gold Standard Credible on the Periphery? Evidence from Currency Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 10388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Richard Pomfret, 2005. "Sequencing Trade and Monetary Integration," Others 0502004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Jacks, David S. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Novy, Dennis, 2010. "Trade costs in the first wave of globalization," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 127-141, April.
    13. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 301-356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Christopher M. Meissner, 2003. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 344-353, March.
    15. Maurel, Mathilde, 2004. "Current account constraint as a barrier to international trade: the evidence from the European enlargement process?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 301-317, September.
    16. Alho, Kari, 2003. "The Impact of Regionalism on Trade in Europe," Discussion Papers 843, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    17. Pomfret, Richard, 2005. "Sequencing trade and monetary integration: issues and application to Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 105-124, February.
    18. Meissner, Christopher M., 2005. "A new world order: explaining the international diffusion of the gold standard, 1870-1913," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 385-406, July.
    19. Clement van de Coevering, 2003. "Structural convergence and monetary integration in Europe," MEB Series (discontinued) 2003-20, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
    20. Maurel, Mathilde, 2002. "On the Way of EMU Enlargement towards CEECs: What is the Appropriate Exchange Rate Regime?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3409, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Kris James Mitchener & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2005. "Supersanctions and Sovereign Debt Repayment," NBER Working Papers 11472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. James Yetman, 2007. "Currency Unions, Trade Flows And Capital Flows," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 189-204, May.
    23. Lazaretou, Sophia, 2005. "The drachma, foreign creditors, and the international monetary system: tales of a currency during the 19th and the early 20th centuries," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 202-236, April.
    24. Wolfgang Keller & Carol H. Shiue, 2008. "Institutions, Technology, and Trade," NBER Working Papers 13913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Carlo Ciccarelli & Anna Missiaia, 2018. "The fall and rise of business cycle co-movements in Imperial Austria’s regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(1), pages 171-193, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marc Flandreau & Mathilde Maurel, 2005. "Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 135-152, April.
    2. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 301-356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & De Grauwe, Paul, 2005. "Endogeneities of optimum currency areas: what brings countries sharing a single currency closer together?," Working Paper Series 468, European Central Bank.
    4. Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2003. "Monetary Integration Ahead of Trade Integration in East Asia?," ISER Discussion Paper 0572, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    5. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/607 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Andrew K. Rose & T. D. Stanley, 2005. "A Meta‐Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 347-365, July.
    7. Rose, Andrew K & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Currency Unions and International Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1067-1089, November.
    8. Michele Fratianni, 2004. "Borders and the Constraints on Globalization," Working Papers 2004-05, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy.
    9. Baldwin, Richard E. & Skudelny, Frauke & Taglioni, Daria, 2005. "Trade effects of the euro: evidence from sectoral data," Working Paper Series 446, European Central Bank.
    10. Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2003. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 2(3), pages 1-20.
    11. U. Michael Bergman & Lars Jonung, 2011. "Business Cycle Synchronization In Europe: Evidence From The Scandinavian Currency Union," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(2), pages 268-292, March.
    12. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009.
    13. Pomfret, Richard, 2005. "Sequencing trade and monetary integration: issues and application to Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 105-124, February.
    14. Baldwin, Richard & Taglioni, Daria, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Barry Eichengreen, 2008. "Sui Generis EMU," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 303, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    16. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU," Working Paper Series rwp04-039, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    17. Sergio Nardis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2003. "Currency unions and trade: The special case of EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 139(4), pages 625-649, December.
    18. Antoni Estevadeordal & Brian Frantz & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "The Rise and Fall of World Trade, 1870–1939," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(2), pages 359-407.
    19. William Miles, 2015. "Did the Classical Gold Standard Lead to Greater Price Level Convergence? A New Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 351-377, April.
    20. Christopher M. Meissner, 2002. "A New World Order: Explaining the Emergence of the Classical Gold Standard," NBER Working Papers 9233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimum currency area; endogeneity; trade and business cycles correlation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/607. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Spire @ Sciences Po Library). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ecspofr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.