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Population Aging

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  • David N. Weil

Abstract

Population aging is primarily the result of past declines in fertility, which produced a decades long period in which the ratio of dependents to working age adults was reduced. Rising old-age dependency in many countries represents the inevitable passing of this "demographic dividend." Societies use three methods to transfer resources to people in dependent age groups: government, family, and personal saving. In developed countries, families are predominant in supporting children, while government is the main source of support for the elderly. The most important means by which aging will affect aggregate output is the distortion from taxes to fund PAYGO pensions.

Suggested Citation

  • David N. Weil, 2006. "Population Aging," NBER Working Papers 12147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12147
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Afflatet, 2016. "The impact of population ageing on public debt. A panel analysis for eighteen european countries," Working Papers 1615, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    2. Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg & Christian Jaag, 2011. "Aging and the Financing of Social Security in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 147(II), pages 181-231, June.
    3. Kobsak Pootrakool & Anak Serichetpong, 2007. "Safeguarding out Nation's Nest Egg: Necessary Reforms to our Social Security System," Working Papers 2007-05, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    4. Stelter, Robert, 2014. "Over-aging: Are present human populations too old?," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 137, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    5. Paula C. Albuquerque & João C. Lopes, 2010. "Economic impacts of ageing: an inter‐industry approach," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(12), pages 970-986, October.
    6. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of population ageing on economic growth: an in-depth bibliometric analysis," FEP Working Papers 505, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    7. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    8. Jorgensen, Ole Hagen, 2011. "Macroeconomic and policy implications of population aging in Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5519, The World Bank.
    9. Ammara Cheema, 2013. "Upcoming picture of ageing population: Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(5), pages 2399-2413, August.
    10. Choi, Horag & Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2008. "Endogenous discounting, the world saving glut and the U.S. current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 30-53, May.
    11. World Bank, 2013. "Europe 2020 Romania : Evidence-based Policies for Productivity, Employment, and Skills Enhancement," World Bank Publications - Reports 16255, The World Bank Group.
    12. Bernardo Lanza Queiroz & Cássio Maldonado Turra & Elisenda Renteria Perez, 2006. "The Opportunities We Cannot Forgo: Economic Consequences Of Population Changes In Brazil," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 32, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    13. Michael Graff & Kam-Ki Tang & Jie Zhang, "undated". "Demography, Financial Openness, National Savings and External Balance," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2008, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    14. Christian Jaag & Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg, 2010. "Pension reform, retirement, and life-cycle unemployment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 17(5), pages 556-585, October.
    15. Mr. Willy A Hoffmaister & Mr. Jaime Guajardo & Mr. Mario Catalan, 2008. "Global Aging and Declining World Interest Rates: Macroeconomic Insurance Through Pension Reform in Cyprus," IMF Working Papers 2008/098, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Mr. Erik Lueth, 2008. "Capital Flows and Demographics—An Asian Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2008/008, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A. C. Teixeira & Sandra Silva, 2017. "The Impact Of Population Ageing On Economic Growth: A Bibliometric Survey," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(02), pages 275-296, June.
    18. Jørgensen, Ole Hagen & Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard, 2009. "Labour supply and retirement policy in an overlapping generations model with stochastic fertility," Discussion Papers on Economics 1/2009, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    19. Philip Lane, 2007. "The Swedish external position and the krona," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 263-279, November.
    20. Michele Gragnolati & Ole Hagen Jorgensen & Romero Rocha & Anna Fruttero, 2011. "Growing Old in an Older Brazil : Implications of Population Ageing on Growth, Poverty, Public Finance, and Service Delivery," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2351, December.
    21. Stelter, Robert, 2016. "Over-aging — Are present-day human populations too old?," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 116-143.
    22. repec:hal:journl:dumas-00817699 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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