This paper studies the quantitative impact of aging on the financing of social security and the public sector in Switzerland. Demographic projections forecast a doubling of the dependency ratio until 2050 as well as an increase of 10% in total population due to longer life expectancy. We use a computational growth model with overlapping generations, including labor market adjustment on five different behavioural margins: labor market participation, hours worked, job search, retirement, and on-the-job training. Starting with a passive fiscal strategy, our simulations show that a doubling of the old age dependency ratio might reduce per capita income by more than 20 percent and necessitate a long-run increase of wage taxes and social security contributions by 21 percentage points. A comprehensive reform package, including an increase in the effective retirement age to 68 years and several other measures, may limit the increase of the tax burden to 4 percentage points of the value added tax and reduce the decline of per capita income to 6% in the long-run. firms typically have a high growth potential, need external funds to finance investment, and rely on the key effort and know-how of inside entrepreneurs. Given the limited amount of tangible assets and the non-contractible nature of entrepreneurial effort, these firms are often financially constrained. Access to external funds becomes an important factor in the expansion of innovative industries. This paper models a two sector economy of innovative and standard industries and shows how the pattern of comparative advantage is shaped by factor endowments and variables relating to corporate finance. In particular, a larger equity ratio of young entrepreneurial firms and tough corporate governance standards relax the financing constraints and create a comparative advantage in innovative industries.
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Find related papers by JEL classification: D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
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Krueger, Alan B. & Meyer, Bruce D., 2002.
"Labor supply effects of social insurance,"
Handbook of Public Economics,
in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 33, pages 2327-2392
Elsevier.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Lindbeck, Assar & Persson, Mats, 2002.
"The Gains from Pension Reform,"
Seminar Papers
712, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
[Downloadable!]
Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002.
"Social security,"
Handbook of Public Economics,
in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324
Elsevier.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Martin Feldstein & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 2001.
"Social Security,"
NBER Working Papers
8451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)