IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v7y2019i3p81-d257136.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial Stability Index for the Financial Sector of Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Sadia Babar

    (Faculty of Management and Social Science, Capital University of Science and Technology, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan)

  • Rashid Latief

    (College of Finance, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China)

  • Sumaira Ashraf

    (CEFAGE Research Center, University of Évora, Évora 7000-812, Portugal)

  • Sania Nawaz

    (Faculty of Management and Social Science, Capital University of Science and Technology, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan)

Abstract

This study aims to develop a financial stability index for the Pakistani financial sector by using the financial reports for the period of 2001–2011. Specifically, we constructed three different classes of indices in this study based on a variance-equal weighted approach, a linear probability approach, and a logistic approach. We also assessed the prediction accuracy of the financial stability index. All indices indicated that profitability, liquid liability to the liquid asset, non-performing loan, uncovered liabilities, interest spread and inter-fund to liquid liabilities variables contribute significantly to the determination of financial stress of commercial banks. We also compared the results of indices computed with different methodologies—among them was the index constructed by employing coefficients of the logistic model and which performed outstandingly in predicting distressed and non-distressed banks. Moreover, the findings of this study suggest that in regard to return on assets and return on equity, when employed in a stepwise manner for developing the financial stability index, the results are similar in the sense that both profitability indicators have the same behavior. Finally, we conclude that the financial stability indices developed in this study could help decision makers to detect and avoid instability in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Sadia Babar & Rashid Latief & Sumaira Ashraf & Sania Nawaz, 2019. "Financial Stability Index for the Financial Sector of Pakistan," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-24, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:7:y:2019:i:3:p:81-:d:257136
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/7/3/81/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/7/3/81/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5euk7d0f8t81prfu1k2sspdcok is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_002 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Mevlud Islami & Jeong‐Ryeol Kurz‐Kim, 2014. "A Single Composite Financial Stress Indicator And Its Real Impact In The Euro Area," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 204-211, July.
    4. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans‐Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2010. "Asset Price Misalignments and the Role of Money and Credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 377-407, December.
    5. James J. Heckman & Thomas E. MaCurdy, 1985. "A Simultaneous Equations Linear Probability Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 28-37, February.
    6. Marc Klau & John Hawkins, 2000. "Measuring potential vulnerabilities in emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 91, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2011. "Quasi real time early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: A role for global liquidity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 520-533, September.
    8. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
    9. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-1.
    11. Moore, Winston, 2009. "How do financial crises affect commercial bank liquidity? Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean," MPRA Paper 21473, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    13. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2015. "Financial stability and economic performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 25-40.
    14. Mr. Subir Lall & Mr. Roberto Cardarelli & Mr. Selim A Elekdag, 2009. "Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries," IMF Working Papers 2009/100, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Adam Gersl & Jaroslav Hermanek, 2007. "Financial Stability Indicators: Advantages and Disadvantages of their Use in the Assessment of Financial System Stability," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2006, chapter 0, pages 69-79, Czech National Bank.
    16. Fiordelisi, Franco & Mare, Davide Salvatore, 2013. "Probability of default and efficiency in cooperative banking," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 30-45.
    17. John R. Walter, 1991. "Loan loss reserves," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 77(Jul), pages 20-30.
    18. Elke Hanschel & Pierre Monnin, 2005. "Measuring and forecasting stress in the banking sector: evidence from Switzerland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 431-49, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Marco Lo Duca & Tuomas Peltonen, 2011. "Macrofinancial vulnerabilities and future financial stress: assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential regulation and policy, volume 60, pages 82-88, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Altunbas, Yener & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Marques-Ibanez, David, 2009. "Securitisation and the bank lending channel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 996-1009, November.
    21. Martin Cihak & Jaroslav Hermanek, 2005. "Stress Testing the Czech Banking System: Where Are We? Where Are We Going?," Research and Policy Notes 2005/02, Czech National Bank.
    22. Miguel Morales & Dairo Estrada, 2010. "A financial stability index for Colombia," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 555-581, October.
    23. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "Asymmetric Information and Financial Crises: A Historical Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 69-108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2001. "Liquidity Risk, Liquidity Creation, and Financial Fragility: A Theory of Banking," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(2), pages 287-327, April.
    25. Yonghong Zou & Erik R. Christensen & An Li, 2013. "Characteristic pattern analysis of polybromodiphenyl ethers in Great Lakes sediments: a combination of eigenspace projection and positive matrix factorization analysis," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 41-50, February.
    26. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    27. Stefano Puddu, 2013. "Optimal Weights and Stress Banking Indexes," IRENE Working Papers 13-02, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    28. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu, 2010. "Forecasting Credit Growth Rate In Romania: From Credit Boom To Credit Crunch?," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 5(1), pages 62-75, March.
    29. Benjamin Neudorfer & Michael Sigmund & Alexander Trachta, 2011. "Detecting Financial Stability Vulnerabilities in Due Time: Can Simple Indicators Identify a Complex Issue?," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 22, pages 59-71.
    30. Mr. Garry J. Schinasi, 2004. "Defining Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 2004/187, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Jan Willem van den End, 2006. "Indicator and boundaries of financial stability," DNB Working Papers 097, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    32. Ishrat Husain, 2011. "Financial Sector Regulation in Pakistan: The Way Forward," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 7, pages 31-44.
    33. Nadežda Sinenko & Deniss Titarenko & Mikus Arinš, 2013. "The Latvian financial stress index as an important element of the financial system stability monitoring framework," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 85-110, December.
    34. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2007. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 13607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Rajan, Raghuram G. & Zingales, Luigi, 2003. "The great reversals: the politics of financial development in the twentieth century," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 5-50, July.
    36. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2008. "Central Bank or Single Financial Supervision Authority: The Romanian Case," MPRA Paper 17225, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jan 2009.
    37. Mark Illing & Ying Liu, 2003. "An Index of Financial Stress for Canada," Staff Working Papers 03-14, Bank of Canada.
    38. Claudiu Mihail MANOLESCU & Elena MANOLESCU, 2017. "The financial stability index – An insight into the financial and economic conditions of Romania," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(613), W), pages 5-24, Winter.
    39. Tng & Kwek, 2015. "Financial stress, economic activity and monetary policy in the ASEAN-5 economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(48), pages 5169-5185, October.
    40. Hussin Abdullah & Jauhari Dahalan & Khaw Lee Hwei & Mohammed Umar & Md Mohan Uddin, 2017. "Malaysian Financial Stress Index and Assessing its Impacts on the Economy," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 227-235.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marina Yu. Malkina & Rodion V. Balakin, 2023. "The Relation of Financial and Industrial Stresses to Monetary Policy Parameters in the Russian Economy," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 3, pages 104-121, June.
    2. Nasir Khan & Mahwish Zafar & Abiodun Funso Okunlola & Zeman Zoltan & Magda Robert, 2022. "Effects of Financial Inclusion on Economic Growth, Poverty, Sustainability, and Financial Efficiency: Evidence from the G20 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, October.
    3. Iwanicz-Drozdowska Małgorzata & Kurowski Łukasz, 2021. "Keep your friends close and your enemies closer – the case of monetary policy and financial imbalances," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 22(4), pages 383-414, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nasreen, Samia & Anwar, Sofia & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2017. "Financial stability, energy consumption and environmental quality: Evidence from South Asian economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1105-1122.
    2. Emmanuel C. Mamatzakis & Mike G. Tsionas, 2021. "A Bayesian panel stochastic volatility measure of financial stability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5363-5384, October.
    3. Mansour Ishrakieh, Layal & Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2018. "The Institute of Financial Economics Financial Stress Index (IFEFSI) for Lebanon," MPRA Paper 116054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Layal MansourIshrakieh & Leila Dagher & Sadika El Hariri, 2020. "A financial stress index for a highly dollarized developing country : The case of Lebanon," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(2), pages 43-52.
    5. Nadežda Sinenko & Deniss Titarenko & Mikus Arinš, 2013. "The Latvian financial stress index as an important element of the financial system stability monitoring framework," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 85-110, December.
    6. Magdalena Ziolo & Beata Zofia Filipiak & Iwona Bąk & Katarzyna Cheba, 2019. "How to Design More Sustainable Financial Systems: The Roles of Environmental, Social, and Governance Factors in the Decision-Making Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-34, October.
    7. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel C. & Ongena, Steven & Tsionas, Mike G., 2021. "Does alternative finance moderate bank fragility? Evidence from the euro area," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. Marco Lo Duca & Tuomas Peltonen, 2011. "Macrofinancial vulnerabilities and future financial stress: assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential regulation and policy, volume 60, pages 82-88, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Samia Nasreen & Sofia Anwar, 2020. "Financial Stability And The Role Of Economic And Financial Integration In South Asia: Evidence From Time-Series Data," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(02), pages 303-333, March.
    10. Samia Nasreen & Sofia Anwar, 2017. "Financial Stability And The Role Of Economic And Financial Integration In South Asia: Evidence From Time-Series Data," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(02), pages 303-333, March.
    11. Sun, Lixin & Huang, Yuqin, 2016. "Measuring the instability of China's financial system: Indices construction and an early warning system," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 10, pages 1-41.
    12. Nadri , Kamran & Ebrahimi , Sajad & Fadaie , Abbas, 2018. "An Investigation of Co-Movement of Financial Stability Index with Macro-Prudential Indicator through Wavelet Analysis," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 13(2), pages 125-151, April.
    13. Apostolakis, George & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2015. "Financial stress spillovers across the banking, securities and foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 1-21.
    14. Louzis, Dimitrios & Vouldis, Angelos, 2013. "A financial systemic stress index for Greece," Working Paper Series 1563, European Central Bank.
    15. Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2013. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 92-106.
    16. George Apostolakis & Athanasios P. Papadopoulos, 2019. "Financial Stability, Monetary Stability and Growth: a PVAR Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 157-178, February.
    17. Sarlin, Peter & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2011. "Mapping the state of financial stability," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2011, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    18. Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2013. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 92-106.
    19. Timothy Bianco & Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong, 2012. "Financial stress index: a lens for supervising the financial system," Working Papers (Old Series) 12-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    20. Indranarain Ramlall, 2015. "Mauritius Financial System Stress Index: Estimating the Costs of the Subprime Crisis," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 235-271, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:7:y:2019:i:3:p:81-:d:257136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.