Asset-price boom-bust cycles and credit: what is the scope of macro-prudential regulation?
AbstractOver the recent months, several initiatives have taken place to develop macro-prudential regulation in order to prevent systemic risk and the built-up of financial imbalances. Crucial to the success of such policy is the ability of the macro-prudential authority to identify in due time such imbalances, generally featured by asset-price boom-bust cycles. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of detecting asset-price booms according to alternative identification strategies and assess their robustness. We infer the probability that an asset-price boom turns into an asset-price bust. In addition, we try to disentangle costless or low-cost from costly asset-price booms. We find some evidence that house price booms are more likely to turn into costly recession than stock price booms. Resorting both to a non-parametric approach and a discrete-choice (logit) model, we analyze the ability of a set of indicators to robustly explain costly asset-price booms. According to our results, real long-term interest rates, total investment, real credit and real stock prices tend to increase the probability of a costly housing-price boom, whereas real GDP and house prices tend to increase the probability of a costly stock-price boom. Regarding the latter, credit variables tend to play a less convincing role. From this perspective, we specify the scope of macro-prudential regulation as a set of tools aiming at avoiding "costly" asset-price booms. In doing so, we try both to make the case for state-contingent macro-prudential regulations and to set out clear delineation between monetary and financial stability objectives.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 263.
Length: 65 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Early Warning Indicators ; Discrete-Choice Model ; Asset Price Booms and Busts ; Macro-prudential Regulation ; Leaning Against the Wind Policies.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2012.
"Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets,"
BOFIT Discussion Papers
22/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2013. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 92-106.
- Rochelle M. Edge & Ralf R. Meisenzahl, 2011. "The unreliability of credit-to-GDP ratio gaps in real-time: Implications for countercyclical capital buffers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- D. Filiz Unsal, 2013. "Capital Flows and Financial Stability: Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Responses," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 233-285, March.
- Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2010.
"Macroprudential policy - a literature review,"
DNB Working Papers
267, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Bank for International Settlements, 2010. "Macroprudential instruments and frameworks: a stocktaking of issues and experiences," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 38, July.
- Carolina Arteaga cabrales & Carlos Huertas Campos & Sergio Olarte Armenta, 2012.
"Índice de Desbalance Macroeconómico,"
Borradores de Economia
744, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Rochelle M. Edge & Ralf R. Meisenzahl, 2011. "The Unreliability of Credit-to-GDP Ratio Gaps in Real Time: Implications for Countercyclical Capital Buffers," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(4), pages 261-298, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael brassart).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.