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Asset-price boom-bust cycles and credit: what is the scope of macro-prudential regulation?


Author Info

  • Borgy, V.
  • Clerc, L.
  • Renne, J-P.


Over the recent months, several initiatives have taken place to develop macro-prudential regulation in order to prevent systemic risk and the built-up of financial imbalances. Crucial to the success of such policy is the ability of the macro-prudential authority to identify in due time such imbalances, generally featured by asset-price boom-bust cycles. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of detecting asset-price booms according to alternative identification strategies and assess their robustness. We infer the probability that an asset-price boom turns into an asset-price bust. In addition, we try to disentangle costless or low-cost from costly asset-price booms. We find some evidence that house price booms are more likely to turn into costly recession than stock price booms. Resorting both to a non-parametric approach and a discrete-choice (logit) model, we analyze the ability of a set of indicators to robustly explain costly asset-price booms. According to our results, real long-term interest rates, total investment, real credit and real stock prices tend to increase the probability of a costly housing-price boom, whereas real GDP and house prices tend to increase the probability of a costly stock-price boom. Regarding the latter, credit variables tend to play a less convincing role. From this perspective, we specify the scope of macro-prudential regulation as a set of tools aiming at avoiding "costly" asset-price booms. In doing so, we try both to make the case for state-contingent macro-prudential regulations and to set out clear delineation between monetary and financial stability objectives.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 263.

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Length: 65 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:263

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Keywords: Early Warning Indicators ; Discrete-Choice Model ; Asset Price Booms and Busts ; Macro-prudential Regulation ; Leaning Against the Wind Policies.;

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Cited by:
  1. Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2012. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  2. Rochelle M. Edge & Ralf R. Meisenzahl, 2011. "The unreliability of credit-to-GDP ratio gaps in real-time: Implications for countercyclical capital buffers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. D. Filiz Unsal, 2013. "Capital Flows and Financial Stability: Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Responses," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 233-285, March.
  4. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2010. "Macroprudential policy - a literature review," DNB Working Papers 267, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  5. Bank for International Settlements, 2010. "Macroprudential instruments and frameworks: a stocktaking of issues and experiences," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 38, July.
  6. Carolina Arteaga cabrales & Carlos Huertas Campos & Sergio Olarte Armenta, 2012. "Índice de Desbalance Macroeconómico," Borradores de Economia 744, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  7. Rochelle M. Edge & Ralf R. Meisenzahl, 2011. "The Unreliability of Credit-to-GDP Ratio Gaps in Real Time: Implications for Countercyclical Capital Buffers," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(4), pages 261-298, December.


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