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Explaining the Poor Performance of Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models

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Author Info
John Y. Campbell
John H. Cochrane

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Abstract

The poor performance of consumption-based asset pricing models relative to traditional portfolio-based asset pricing models is one of the great disappointments of the empirical asset pricing literature. We show that the external habit-formation model economy of Campbell and Cochrane (1999) can explain this puzzle. Though artificial data from that economy conform to a consumption-based model by construction, the CAPM and its extensions are much better approximate models than is the standard power utility specification of the consumption-based model. Conditioning information is the central reason for this result. The model economy has one shock, so when returns are measured at sufficiently high frequency the consumption-based model and the CAPM are equivalent and perfect conditional asset pricing models. However, the model economy also produces time-varying expected returns, tracked by the dividend-price ratio. Portfolio-based models capture some of this variation in state variables, which a state-independent function of consumption cannot capture, and so portfolio-based models are better approximate unconditional asset pricing models.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7237.

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Date of creation: Jul 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7237

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  1. Kirill Sossunov, 2002. "A Real Business Cycle Model with Changing Sentiments," Macroeconomics 0210005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Marjorie Flavin & Shinobu Nakagawa, 2004. "A Model of Housing in the Presence of Adjustment Costs: A Structural Interpretation of Habit Persistence," NBER Working Papers 10458, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gomes, Joao F & Kogan, Leonid & Zhang, Lu, 2002. "Equilibrium Cross-Section of Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3482, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Fousseni Chabi-Yo, 2006. "Conditioning Information and Variance Bounds on Pricing Kernels with Higher-Order Moments: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 06-38, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2005. "The Cross-Section of Currency Risk Premia and US Consumption Growth Risk," NBER Working Papers 11104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 1999. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: a cross-sectional test when risk premia are time-varying," Staff Reports 93, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Vance Martin & G.C. Lim & Esfandiar Maasoumi, 2004. "Discounting The Equity Premium Puzzle," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 331, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  8. Grammig, Joachim & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2006. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing with a Reference Level: New Evidence from the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-32, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  9. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2006. "Specification tests of asset pricing models using excess returns," Working Paper 2006-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Yu Ren & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2007. "Improvement in Finite Sample Properties of the Hansen-Jagannathan Distance Test," Working Papers 1126, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Lars Grüne & Willi Semmler, 2007. "Asset pricing with dynamic programming," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 233-265, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Balázs Romhányi, 2005. "A learning hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Macroeconomics 0503001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  13. Elena Márquez de la Cruz, 2005. "La elasticidad de sustitución intertemporal y el consumo duradero: un análisis para el caso español," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 29(3), pages 455-481, September. [Downloadable!]
  14. Willi Semmler & Lars Grüne, 2004. "Asset Pricing with Delayed Consumption Decisions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 59, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Alon Brav & George M. Constantinides & Christopher C. Geczy, 2002. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers and Limited Participation: Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. William R. Emmons & Frank A. Schmid, 2000. "The Asian crisis and the exposure of large U.S. firms," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 15-34. [Downloadable!]
  17. Kris Jacobs & Kevin Q. Wang, 2002. "Idiosyncratic Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-11, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  18. Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46. [Downloadable!]
  19. Hanno Lustig, 2004. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and US Consumption Growth Risk (joint with Adrien Verdelhan)(updated February 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 303, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  20. Long Chen & Ralitsa Petkova & Lu Zhang, 2006. "The Expected Value Premium," NBER Working Papers 12183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Jessica A. Wachter, 2005. "Solving Models with External Habit," NBER Working Papers 11559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Kevin L. Reffett & Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Evaluating Asset Pricing Implications of DSGE Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1630, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  23. Michael W. Brandt & David A. Chapman, 2006. "Linear Approximations and Tests of Conditional Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 12513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Vassalou, Maria, 2001. "News Related to Future GDP Growth as a Risk Factor in Equity Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3057, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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