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Stochastic Skew in Currency Options

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Author Info
Peter Carr (New York University & Bloomberg)
Liuren Wu (Zicklin School of Business, Baruch College)

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Abstract

We document the behavior of over-the-counter currency option prices across moneyness, maturity, and calendar time on two of the most actively traded currency pairs over the past eight years. We find that the risk-neutral distribution of currency returns is relatively symmetric on average. However, on any given date, the conditional currency return distribution can show strong asymmetry. This asymmetry varies greatly over time and often switch directions. We design and estimate a class of models that capture these unique features of the currency options prices and perform much better than traditional jump- diffusion stochastic volatility models.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0409014.

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Length: 64 pages
Date of creation: 07 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0409014

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 64
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: currency options; stochastic skew; time-changed Levy processes;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G - Financial Economics

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  2. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2002. "Time-Changed Levy Processes and Option Pricing," Finance 0207011, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Bollen, Nicolas P. B. & Gray, Stephen F. & Whaley, Robert E., 2000. "Regime switching in foreign exchange rates: Evidence from currency option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 239-276. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni & Jesper Lund, 2002. "An Empirical Investigation of Continuous-Time Equity Return Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1239-1284, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Jose M. Campa & P.H. Kevin Chang & Robert L. Reider, 1997. "Implied Exchange Rate Distributions: Evidence from OTC Option Markets," NBER Working Papers 6179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2003. "The Finite Moment Log Stable Process and Option Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 753-778, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Peter Carr & Helyette Geman, 2002. "The Fine Structure of Asset Returns: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 305-332, April. [Downloadable!]
  11. Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P H Kevin, 1995. " Testing the Expectations Hypothesis on the Term Structure of Volatilities in Foreign Exchange Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 529-47, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  13. Bakshi, Gurdip & Cao, Charles & Chen, Zhiwu, 2000. "Do Call Prices and the Underlying Stock Always Move in the Same Direction?," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 549-84.
  14. Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Bakshi, Gurdip & Cao, Charles & Chen, Zhiwu, 2000. "Pricing and hedging long-term options," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 277-318. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Garman, Mark B. & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1983. "Foreign currency option values," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 231-237, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Jingzhi Huang & Liuren Wu, 2004. "Specification Analysis of Option Pricing Models Based on Time- Changed Levy Processes," Finance 0401002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Bates, David S., 2000. "Post-'87 crash fears in the S&P 500 futures option market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 181-238. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Peter Christoffersen & Steven Heston & Kris Jacobs, 2009. "The Shape and Term Structure of the Index Option Smirk: Why Multifactor Stochastic Volatility Models Work so Well," CREATES Research Papers 2009-34, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  2. Almut E. D. Veraart & Luitgard A. M. Veraart, 2009. "Stochastic volatility and stochastic leverage," CREATES Research Papers 2009-20, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  3. Emmanuel Farhi & Samuel Paul Fraiberger & Xavier Gabaix & Romain Ranciere & Adrien Verdelhan, 2009. "Crash Risk in Currency Markets," NBER Working Papers 15062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Bertholon, H. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2008. "Econometric Asset Pricing Modelling," Documents de Travail 223, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Kyriakos Chourdakis, 2005. "Lévy processes driven by stochastic volatility," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 333-352, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Lars Stentoft, 2009. "Bayesian Option Pricing Using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity Models," CREATES Research Papers 2009-07, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 13805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Lars Stentoft, 2009. "Bayesian Option Pricing Using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity," Cahiers de recherche 0926, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
  9. Akihiko Takahashi & Akira Yamazaki, 2008. "A New Scheme for Static Hedging of European Derivatives under Stochastic Volatility Models," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-567, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
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