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U.S. Stock Market Crash Risk, 1926-2006

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Author Info
David S. Bates
Abstract

This paper applies the Bates (RFS, 2006) methodology to the problem of estimating and filtering time- changed Lévy processes, using daily data on U.S. stock market excess returns over 1926-2006. In contrast to density-based filtration approaches, the methodology recursively updates the associated conditional characteristic functions of the latent variables. The paper examines how well time-changed Lévy specifications capture stochastic volatility, the "leverage" effect, and the substantial outliers occasionally observed in stock market returns. The paper also finds that the autocorrelation of stock market excess returns varies substantially over time, necessitating an additional latent variable when analyzing historical data on stock market returns. The paper explores option pricing implications, and compares the results with observed prices of options on S&P 500 futures.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14913.

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Date of creation: Apr 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14913

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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  1. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Eberlein, Ernst & Keller, Ulrich & Prause, Karsten, 1998. "New Insights into Smile, Mispricing, and Value at Risk: The Hyperbolic Model," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(3), pages 371-405, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
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  16. David S. Bates, 2006. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Latent Affine Processes," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 909-965. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2004. "News Arrival, Jump Dynamics, and Volatility Components for Individual Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 755-793, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Dimson, Elroy, 1979. "Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-226, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2004. "Time-changed Levy processes and option pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 113-141, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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