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Stochastic skew in currency options

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  • Carr, Peter
  • Wu, Liuren

Abstract

We document the behavior of over-the-counter currency option prices across moneyness, maturity, and calendar time on two of the most actively traded currency pairs over the past eight years. We find that the risk-neutral distribution of currency returns is relatively symmetric on average. However, on any given date, the conditional currency return distribution can show strong asymmetry. This asymmetry varies greatly over time and often switch directions. We design and estimate a class of models that capture these unique features of the currency options prices and perform much better than traditional jump- diffusion stochastic volatility models.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 86 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (October)
Pages: 213-247

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:86:y:2007:i:1:p:213-247

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

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References

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  11. Merton, Robert C., 1975. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Working papers 787-75., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
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  15. Bakshi, Gurdip & Cao, Charles & Chen, Zhiwu, 2000. "Pricing and hedging long-term options," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 277-318.
  16. Bakshi, Gurdip S & Chen, Zhiwu, 1997. " Equilibrium Valuation of Foreign Exchange Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 799-826, June.
  17. Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P. H. Kevin, 1998. "The forecasting ability of correlations implied in foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 855-880, December.
  18. Peter Carr & Helyette Geman, 2002. "The Fine Structure of Asset Returns: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 305-332, April.
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  20. Bollen, Nicolas P. B. & Gray, Stephen F. & Whaley, Robert E., 2000. "Regime switching in foreign exchange rates: Evidence from currency option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 239-276.
  21. Jose M. Campa & P.H. Kevin Chang & Robert L. Reider, 1997. "Implied Exchange Rate Distributions: Evidence from OTC Option Markets," NBER Working Papers 6179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P H Kevin, 1995. " Testing the Expectations Hypothesis on the Term Structure of Volatilities in Foreign Exchange Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 529-47, June.
  23. Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2004. "Time-changed Levy processes and option pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 113-141, January.
  24. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
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