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An Admissible Affine Model for Joint Term Structure Dynamics of Interest Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Hans Dewachter

    (K.U.Leuven and Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Konstantijn Maes

    (K.U.Leuven, C.E.S., International Economics)

Abstract

We present and estimate a parsimonious continuous-time multi-factor affine term structure model for the joint term structure dynamics of interest rates across countries. We extend the standard affine models by focusing on joint markets and by incorporating the exchange rate dynamics in the estimation procedure. Estimation on UK-US term structure data is done by means of a Kalman filter algorithm and quasi maximum likelihood inference. We find that our particular three factor model is rather successful in fitting bond correlations, both within and between national bond markets. Moreover, the model sheds light on two of the most persistent puzzles in empirical international finance, i.e. the forward premium puzzle and the (bond portfolio) home bias puzzle. Our model implies that the empirical forward premium puzzle is due to (i) the existence of time varying risk premia and (ii) the small sample properties of the estimator caused by the strong inertia in (some of) the factors (in line with Baillie and Bollerslev (2000)). With respect to the home bias puzzle, the model allows to test for international diversification gains in unhedged bond return portfolios, conditional on information that is present in the joint term structure of both countries. We find that exchange rate risk is sufficiently priced such that the inclusion of foreign bonds allows for an improved time-dependent risk-return trade off from the perspective of a UK investor.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans Dewachter & Konstantijn Maes, 2001. "An Admissible Affine Model for Joint Term Structure Dynamics of Interest Rates," International Economics Working Papers Series wpie001, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kul:kulwps:wpie001
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    File URL: http://www.econ.kuleuven.ac.be/ew/academic/intecon/publications/wpie001.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Astrid Eisenberg & Markus Rudolf, 2007. "Exchange Rates and the Conversion of Currency‐Specific Risk Premia," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(4), pages 672-701, September.
    2. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Properties of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 279-310.
    3. Gonzalo Cortazar & Eduardo S. Schwartz & Lorenzo F. Naranjo, 2007. "Term-structure estimation in markets with infrequent trading," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 353-369.
    4. Egorov, Alexei V. & Li, Haitao & Ng, David, 2011. "A tale of two yield curves: Modeling the joint term structure of dollar and euro interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 55-70, May.
    5. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    6. Lemke, Wolfgang, 2008. "An affine macro-finance term structure model for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 41-69, March.
    7. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2010. "Properties of Foreign Exchange Risk Premia," MPRA Paper 21302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Nikolaou, Kleopatra & Modugno, Michele, 2009. "The forecasting power of internal yield curve linkages," Working Paper Series 1044, European Central Bank.
    9. Georg Mosburger & Paul Schneider, 2005. "Modelling International Bond Markets with Affine Term Structure Models," Finance 0509003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Bauer, Gregory H., 2017. "International house price cycles, monetary policy and credit," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 88-114.
    11. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Schwartz, Eduardo S. & Naranjo, Lorezo, 2003. "Term Structure Estimation in Low-Frequency Transaction Markets: A Kalman Filter Approach with Incomplete Panel-Data," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt56h775cz, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    12. Antonio Diez De Los Rios, 2009. "Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 755-766, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forward premium anomaly; affine joint term structure model; kalman filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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