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Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?

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  • ANTONIO DIEZ DE LOS RIOS

Abstract

This paper proposes an arbitrage-free model to extract the information that the term structure of forward premia contains for forecasting future spot exchange rates. Using monthly data on four U.S. dollar bilateral exchange rates, we find evidence that this model provides statistically better forecasts than those produced by a random walk for the British pound and Canadian dollar exchange rates. Negative results for the German mark/Euro and Swiss franc are explained by a rejection of the restrictions imposed by the term structure model. Copyright (c) 2009 The Ohio State University.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (06)
Pages: 755-766

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:41:y:2009:i:4:p:755-766

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  1. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-94, November.
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  5. Hodrick, Robert & Vassalou, Maria, 2002. "Do we need multi-country models to explain exchange rate and interest rate and bond return dynamics?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1275-1299, July.
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  13. Jefferson Duarte, 2004. "Evaluating an Alternative Risk Preference in Affine Term Structure Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 379-404.
  14. David K. Backus, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, 02.
  15. Brennan, Michael J. & Xia, Yihong, 2004. "International Capital Markets and Foreign Exchange Risk," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt53z0s29k, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
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  17. Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 113-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Antonio Diez de los Rios & Enrique Sentana, 2007. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity: A Continuous-Time Approach," Working Papers 07-53, Bank of Canada.
  2. Kaminska, Iryna & Meldrum, Andrew & Smith, James, 2011. "A global model of international yield curves: no-arbitrage term structure approach," Bank of England working papers 419, Bank of England.
  3. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2010. "Properties of Foreign Exchange Risk Premia," MPRA Paper 21302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Risk-premia, carry-trade dynamics, and economic value of currency speculation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1195-1219.
  5. Taboga, Marco & Pericoli, Marcello, 2008. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 9523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Properties of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 279-310.
  7. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2010. "A Macro-Finance Approach to Exchange Rate Determination," Working Papers e07-19, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
  8. Gregory H. Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
  9. Carmen Gloria Silva, 2010. "Forward premium puzzle and term structure of interest rates: the case of New Zealand," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 570, Central Bank of Chile.

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