Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Kelet-közép-európai devizaárfolyamok előrejelzése határidős árfolyamok segítségével
[Forecasting the exchange rates of three Central-Eastern European currencies with forward exchange rates]

Contents:

Author Info

  • Darvas, Zsolt
  • Schepp, Zoltán

    ()

Abstract

Írásunkban azt vizsgáljuk, hogy a hosszú lejáratú határidős árfolyamok stacionaritását feltételező hibakorrekciós modellek, amelyeknek korábbi számítások szerint - a világ devizapiaci forgalmának mintegy 75 százalékát kitevő fejlett ipari országokra alkalmazva - kitűnő a mintán kívüli előrejelző erejük, hogyan képesek három keletközép- európai ország devizaárfolyamát előrejelezni. A három vizsgálat alá vont deviza (cseh, magyar, lengyel) esetében az eredmények relációnként nagyon eltérnek, és összességében kedvezőtlenebbek, mint a fejlett ipari országokra kapott eredmények, amit a nem teljesen rugalmas árfolyamrezsim, a rendelkezésre álló adatsor rövidsége, az eurózóna-csatlakozáshoz kapcsolódó bizonytalanságok, a devizakockázati és a határidős kamatprémium létezése, továbbá a Balassa-Samuelson-hatás együttes befolyásaként tudunk értelmezni. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E43, F31, F47.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.kszemle.hu/tartalom/letoltes.php?id=920
Download Restriction: Registration and subscription. 3-month embargo period to non-subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation) in its journal Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences).

Volume (Year): LIV (2007)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 501-528

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:920

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.kszemle.hu

Order Information:
Postal: Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation) Budapest, Budaörsi út 45., 1112, Hungary
Email:
Web: http://www.kszemle.hu/elofizetes/

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. McCracken, Michael W & Sapp, Stephen G, 2005. "Evaluating the Predictability of Exchange Rates Using Long-Horizon Regressions: Mind Your p's and q's!," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 473-94, June.
  2. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
  3. Kenneth A. Froot & Takatoshi Ito, 1988. "On the Consistency of Short-run and Long-run Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 2577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business), 2005. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange Rate Forecasting," Working Papers, Georgetown University, Department of Economics gueconwpa~05-05-01, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  5. Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P & Valente, Giorgio, 2002. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 3281, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Ronald MacDonald & Ian W. Marsh, 1997. "On Fundamentals And Exchange Rates: A Casselian Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 655-664, November.
  7. Schepp, Zoltán, 2003. "Befektetői horizont és a „forwardrejtély”
    [The investor horizon and the ‘forward puzzle’]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 939-963.
  8. Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  10. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2001. "Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 714, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lorenzo Giorgianni, 1996. "Long-horizon exchange rate predictability?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 96-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz qt5fc508pt, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  13. Zsolt Darvas & Zoltán Schepp, 2007. "Forecasting Exchange Rates of Major Currencies with Long Maturity Forward Rates," Working Papers, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest 0705, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
  14. Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  16. Kilian, Lutz, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 491-510, Sept.-Oct.
  17. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 2005. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates: Implications for Exchange Rates and the Forward Premium Anomaly," NBER Working Papers 11840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
  19. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  20. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the Martingale difference hypothesis," Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City RWP 04-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  21. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  22. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Balázs �gert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, 04.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Ábel, István & Kóbor, Ádám, 2010. "A monetáris restrikció hatása strukturális VAR keretben
    [The effect of monetary restriction in a vector auto-regression framework]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 412-430.
  2. Ábel, István & Kóbor, Ádám, 2008. "Kamatkülönbözet, spekulációs profit és árfolyam-változékonyság
    [Interest-rate differentials, speculative capital flows and exchange-rate volatility]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 941-961.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:920. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Odon Sok).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.