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Inferential Expectations

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  • Gordon D. Menzies

    ()

  • Daniel John Zizzo

Abstract

We propose that the formation of beliefs be treated as statistical hypothesis tests, and we label such beliefs inferential expectations. If a belief is overturned through the build-up of evidence, agents are assumed to switch to the rational expectation. Rational expectations are shown to be a special (limiting) case of inferential expectations, with the test size alpha becoming a metric for rationality. We present the results of an experiment that supports inferential expectations. When inferential expectations are built into a Dornbusch-style model of the exchange rate, regression tests of Uncovered Interest Parity and the rational expectations version of the term structure both display downward bias in the slope coefficient.

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File URL: http://cbe.anu.edu.au/research/papers/camawpapers/Papers/2005/Menzies_Zizzo_122005.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2005-12.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2005-12

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References

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  1. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Michael Woodford, 1990. "Self-Fulfilling Expectations and Fluctuations in Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 3361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Clemens J. M. Kool & Daniel L. Thornton, 2003. "A note on the expectations hypothesis at the founding of the Fed," Working Papers 2000-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
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  6. Frankel, Jeff & Froot, Ken, 1986. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1972q8wm, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  7. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1922, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  8. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
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  15. Zellner, Arnold, 1988. "Bayesian analysis in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 27-50, January.
  16. Menzies Gordon Douglas & Zizzo Daniel John, 2009. "Inferential Expectations," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, December.
  17. Michael Woodford, 1994. "Structural Slumps," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1784-1815, December.
  18. Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. & Arlington W. Williams & Raymond Battalio & Timothy Mason, 1989. "Tests of rational expectations in a stark setting," Working Papers 1989-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  19. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Tornell, Aaron, 2004. "Exchange rate puzzles and distorted beliefs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 303-333, December.
  20. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
  21. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information: A Model of Monetary Nonneutrality and Structural Slumps," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1941, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  22. Beckman, Steven R. & Downs, David, 1997. "Forecasters as imperfect information processors: Experimental and survey evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 89-100, January.
  23. Maddock, Rodney & Carter, Michael, 1982. "A Child's Guide to Rational Expectations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 39-51, March.
  24. Gruen, David W R & Menzies, Gordon D, 1995. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It Near-Rationality in the Foreign Exchange Market?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(213), pages 157-66, June.
  25. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  26. Swenson, Charles W., 1997. "Rational expectations and tax policy: Experimental market evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 433-455, March.
  27. Schmalensee, Richard, 1976. "An Experimental Study of Expectation Formation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 17-41, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Timo Henckel & Gordon Menzies & Nicholas Prokhovnik & Daniel Zizzo, 2010. "Barro-Gordon Revisited: Reputational Equilibria with Inferential Expectations," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 018, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  2. Gordon Menzies & Daniel Zizzo, 2008. "News And Expectations In Financial Markets: An Experimental Study," CAMA Working Papers 2008-34, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Menzies, Gordon D. & Zizzo, Daniel John, 2012. "Monetary policy and inferential expectations of exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 359-380.
  4. Gordon Menzies & Daniel Zizzo, 2006. "Exchange Rate Markets And Conservative Inferential Expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2007-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  5. Gordon Menzies & Daniel John Zizzo, 2004. "Inferential Expectations," Economics Series Working Papers 187, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Timo Henckel & Gordon D. Menzies & Daniel J. Zizzo, 2010. "Threshold Pricing in a Noisy World," CAMA Working Papers 2010-01, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  7. George Chouliarakis & Monica Correa-Lopez, 2012. "A Fair Wage Model of Unemployment with Inertia in Fairness Perceptions," Working Papers 1203, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  8. Bruce Lyons & Gordon Douglas Menzies & Daniel John Zizzo, 2009. "Professional interpretation of the standard of proof: An experimental test on merger regulation," Working Paper series, University of East Anglia, Centre for Behavioural and Experimental Social Science (CBESS) 09-16, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  9. Bruce Lyons & Gordon Menzies & Daniel Zizzo, 2012. "Conflicting evidence and decisions by agency professionals: an experimental test in the context of merger regulation," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 73(3), pages 465-499, September.
  10. Timo Henckel & Gordon Menzies & Daniel Zizzo, 2010. "Inferential Expectations and the Missing Middle of Price Changes," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 008, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..

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