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Bond positions, expectations, and the yield curve

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  • Monika Piazzesi
  • Martin Schneider

Abstract

This paper implements a structural model of the yield curve with data on nominal positions and survey forecasts. Bond prices are characterized in terms of investors' current portfolio holdings as well as their subjective beliefs about future bond payoffs. Risk premia measured by an econometrician vary because of changes in investors' subjective risk premia that are identified from portfolios and subjective beliefs but also because subjective beliefs differ from those of the econometrician. The main result is that investors' systematic forecast errors are an important source of business cycle variation in measured risk premia. By contrast, subjective risk premia move less and more slowly over time.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2008-02.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2008-02

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Keywords: Bonds - Prices ; Consumer behavior;

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References

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  1. Albert Lee Chun, 2005. "Expectations, Bond Yields and Monetary Policy," Finance 0512006, EconWPA.
  2. Chan, Yeung Lewis & Viceira, Luis & Campbell, John, 2003. "A Multivariate Model of Strategic Asset Allocation," Scholarly Articles 3163263, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  3. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Aaron Tornell, 2002. "Exchange Rate Dynamics, Learning and Misperception," NBER Working Papers 9391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Froot, Kenneth A, 1989. " New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 283-305, June.
  5. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Risk Premia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 138-160, March.
  6. Wachter, Jessica A., 2006. "A consumption-based model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 365-399, February.
  7. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  8. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, 08.
  9. Matthias Doepke & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Inflation and the Redistribution of Nominal Wealth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(6), pages 1069-1097, December.
  10. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1998. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," NBER Working Papers 6801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2007. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 389-472 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Timothy Cogley, 2005. "Changing Beliefs and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Cross-Equation Restrictions with Drifting Parameters," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 420-451, April.
  13. Backus, David K. & Gregory, Allan W. & Zin, Stanley E., 1989. "Risk premiums in the term structure : Evidence from artificial economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 371-399, November.
  14. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2007. "The Demand for Treasury Debt," NBER Working Papers 12881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1081-1096, November.
  2. Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Term premiums and inflation uncertainty: empirical evidence from an international panel dataset," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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