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Evaluating Wall Street Journal survey forecasters: a multivariate approach

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Author Info

  • Robert Eisenbeis
  • Daniel Waggoner
  • Tao Zha

Abstract

This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the joint performance of multivariate forecasts of economic variables. The methodology is illustrated by comparing the rankings of forecasters by the Wall Street Journal with the authors’ alternative rankings. The results show that the methodology can provide useful insights as to the certainty of forecasts as well as the extent to which various forecasts are similar or different.

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File URL: http://www.frbatlanta.org/filelegacydocs/wp0208a.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2002-8.

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Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2002-8

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Keywords: Forecasting;

References

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  1. repec:wop:humbsf:1999-4 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1998. "Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models," Working Paper 98-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  3. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Vector autoregressions: forecasting and reality," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q1, pages 4-18.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Koske, Isabell & Stadtmann, Georg, 2009. "Exchange rate expectations: The role of person specific forward looking variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 221-223, December.
  2. Andrew Bauer & Robert A. Eisenbeis & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2006. "Transparency, expectations, and forecasts," Working Paper 2006-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  3. Andy Bauer & Robert A. Eisenbeis & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2003. "Forecast evaluation with cross-sectional data: The Blue Chip Surveys," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 17-31.
  4. Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas Pearce, 2010. "Do Wall Street economists believe in Okun’s Law and the Taylor Rule?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 196-217, April.
  5. Carvalho, Fabia A. & Minella, André, 2012. "Survey forecasts in Brazil: A prismatic assessment of epidemiology, performance, and determinants," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1371-1391.
  6. Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber & H.O. Stekler & Elizabeth Reid, 2008. "Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation," Working Papers 2008-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Mar 2011.
  7. Audretsch, David B. & Stadtmann, Georg, 2005. "Biases in FX-forecasts: Evidence from panel data," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 99-111, August.
  8. Filip Novotný & Marie Raková, 2011. "Assessment of Consensus Forecasts Accuracy: The Czech National Bank Perspective," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(4), pages 348-366, August.
  9. Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2009. "Two currencies, one model? Evidence from the Wall Street Journal forecast poll," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 588-596, October.
  10. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "House price forecasts in times of crisis: Do forecasters herd?," Discussion Papers 318, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  11. Christian Dreger & Georg Stadtmann, 2006. "What Drives Heterogeneity in Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Deep Insights from a New Survey," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 624, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  12. Christian Pierdzioch & Jan Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(1), pages 16-29, November.
  13. Ruelke, Jan C. & Frenkel, Michael R. & Stadtmann, Georg, 2010. "Expectations on the yen/dollar exchange rate - Evidence from the Wall Street Journal forecast poll," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 355-368, September.
  14. Herman O. Stekler & Raj M. Talwar, 2011. "Economic Forecasting in the Great Recession," Working Papers 2011-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  15. Christian Dreger & Georg Stadtmann, 2008. "What drives heterogeneity in foreign exchange rate expectations: insights from a new survey," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 360-367.

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