House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis
AbstractWe used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by MDPI, Open Access Journal in its journal International Journal of Financial Studies.
Volume (Year): 1 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (November)
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forecasts; house prices; housing starts; herding;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
- G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
- G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
- F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
- F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
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