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House price forecasts in times of crisis: Do forecasters herd?

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  • Pierdzioch, Christian
  • Rülke, Jan Christoph
  • Stadtmann, Georg

Abstract

We used Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006 - 2010 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices, where anti-herding is less strong in the case of medium-term forecasts, especially in the case of housing starts. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 318.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:318

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Keywords: Forecasts of house prices and housing starts; Herding;

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  1. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
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