House price forecasts in times of crisis: Do forecasters herd?
AbstractWe used Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006 - 2010 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices, where anti-herding is less strong in the case of medium-term forecasts, especially in the case of housing starts. --
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Date of creation: 2012
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Forecasts of house prices and housing starts; Herding;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-07-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2012-07-08 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2012-07-08 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-URE-2012-07-08 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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