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House Price Efficiency: Expectations, Sales, Symmetry

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Author Info
Arthur Grimes (Motu Economic & Public Policy Research)
Andrew Aitken (Motu Economic & Public Policy Research)
Suzi Kerr (Motu Economic & Public Policy Research)

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Abstract

An efficient housing market is of critical importance for individual welfare and for a well-functioning economy. We test the efficiency of this market by estimating the factors that determine both the long-run and the dynamic paths of regional house prices. Our tests use a new quarterly regional panel data set covering the 14 regions of New Zealand from 1981 to 2002. The tests indicate that regional housing markets converge to an equilibrium consistent with consumer optimising conditions, and hence with long-run efficiency. However, some conditions required for short-run (dynamic) efficiency are violated. We find that extrapolative price expectations, based on past regional phenomena, lead to overshooting of house prices in response to new region-specific information. We also find that price dynamics are influenced by past regional house sales activity and that the dynamic adjustment process is asymmetric depending on whether house prices are above or below their long-run equilibrium.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Urban/Regional with number 0408001.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: 02 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0408001

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 48
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: House prices; housing appreciation; housing market; adjustment dynamics;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
R21 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
R31 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Production Analysis and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. McDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "Regional House Prices in Britain: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 40(1), pages 43-55, February.
  2. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2003-2), pages 299-362. [Downloadable!]
  5. Case, Karl E. & Mayer, Christopher J., 1996. "Housing price dynamics within a metropolitan area," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 387-407, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Arthur Grimes & Suzi Kerr & Andrew Aitken, 2003. "Housing and Economic Adjustment," Urban/Regional 0310006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Can, Ayse, 1992. "Specification and estimation of hedonic housing price models," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 453-474, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Patrick Bajari & Matthew E. Kahn, 2003. "Estimating Housing Demand with an Application to Explaining Racial Segregation in Cities," NBER Working Papers 9891, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Pain, Nigel & Westaway, Peter, 1997. "Modelling structural change in the UK housing market: A comparison of alternative house price models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 587-610, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Dubin, Robin A., 1992. "Spatial autocorrelation and neighborhood quality," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 433-452, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets," NBER Working Papers 2748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behaviour: Evidence from the Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 2813, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Capozza, Dennis R. & Seguin, Paul J., 1996. "Expectations, efficiency, and euphoria in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 369-386, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2005. "What’s the Beef with House Prices? Economic Shocks and Local Housing Markets," Urban/Regional 0509011, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Michelle Poland & David C Maré, 2005. "Defining Geographic Communities," Urban/Regional 0509016, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. David C Maré, 2005. "Indirect Effects of Active Labour Market Policies," HEW 0509004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Arthur Grimes & Suzi Kerr & Andrew Aitken, 2005. "Bi-Directional Impacts of Economic, Social and Environmental Changes and the New Zealand Housing Market," Urban/Regional 0509012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Regional and Industry Cycles in Australasia: Implications for a Common Currency," Macroeconomics 0509020, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Steven Stillman & David C. Maré, 2008. "Housing Markets and Migration: Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers 08_06, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
  7. Andrew Coleman & John Landon-Lane, 2007. "Housing Markets and Migration in New Zealand, 1962-2006," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/12, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  8. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Intra & Inter-Regional Industry Shocks: A New Metric with an Application to Australasian Currency Union," Macroeconomics 0509019, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2006. "Housing Supply and Price Adjustment," Working Papers 06_01, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
  10. Viv B. Hall & John McDermott, 2006. "The Ups and Downs of New Zealand House Prices," Working Papers 06_03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
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