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House Price Efficiency: Expectations, Sales, Symmetry

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Author Info

  • Arthur Grimes

    (Motu Economic & Public Policy Research)

  • Andrew Aitken

    (Motu Economic & Public Policy Research)

  • Suzi Kerr

    (Motu Economic & Public Policy Research)

Abstract

An efficient housing market is of critical importance for individual welfare and for a well-functioning economy. We test the efficiency of this market by estimating the factors that determine both the long-run and the dynamic paths of regional house prices. Our tests use a new quarterly regional panel data set covering the 14 regions of New Zealand from 1981 to 2002. The tests indicate that regional housing markets converge to an equilibrium consistent with consumer optimising conditions, and hence with long-run efficiency. However, some conditions required for short-run (dynamic) efficiency are violated. We find that extrapolative price expectations, based on past regional phenomena, lead to overshooting of house prices in response to new region-specific information. We also find that price dynamics are influenced by past regional house sales activity and that the dynamic adjustment process is asymmetric depending on whether house prices are above or below their long-run equilibrium.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/urb/papers/0408/0408001.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Urban/Regional with number 0408001.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: 02 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0408001

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 48
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: House prices; housing appreciation; housing market; adjustment dynamics;

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References

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  1. Dennis R. Capozza & Paul J. Seguin, 1995. "Expectations, Efficiency, and Euphoria in the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 5179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I.
  3. Arthur Grimes & Suzi Kerr & Andrew Aitken, 2003. "Housing and Economic Adjustment," Working Papers 03_09, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  4. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 8143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Case, Karl E. & Mayer, Christopher J., 1996. "Housing price dynamics within a metropolitan area," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 387-407, June.
  8. Patrick Bajari & Matthew E. Kahn, 2003. "Estimating Housing Demand with an Application to Explaining Racial Segregation in Cities," NBER Working Papers 9891, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Dubin, Robin A., 1992. "Spatial autocorrelation and neighborhood quality," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 433-452, September.
  10. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets," NBER Working Papers 2748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Pain, Nigel & Westaway, Peter, 1997. "Modelling structural change in the UK housing market: A comparison of alternative house price models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 587-610, October.
  12. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  13. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
  14. Can, Ayse, 1992. "Specification and estimation of hedonic housing price models," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 453-474, September.
  15. McDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "Regional House Prices in Britain: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 40(1), pages 43-55, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Intra & Inter-Regional Industry Shocks: A New Metric with an Application to Australasian Currency Union," Macroeconomics 0509019, EconWPA.
  2. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2005. "What’s the Beef with House Prices? Economic Shocks and Local Housing Markets," Urban/Regional 0509011, EconWPA.
  3. Arthur Grimes & Suzi Kerr & Andrew Aitken, 2005. "Bi-Directional Impacts of Economic, Social and Environmental Changes and the New Zealand Housing Market," Urban/Regional 0509012, EconWPA.
  4. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "House price forecasts in times of crisis: Do forecasters herd?," Discussion Papers 318, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  5. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Regional and Industry Cycles in Australasia: Implications for a Common Currency," Macroeconomics 0509020, EconWPA.
  6. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2006. "Housing Supply and Price Adjustment," Working Papers 06_01, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  7. Viv B. Hall & John McDermott, 2006. "The Ups and Downs of New Zealand House Prices," Working Papers 06_03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  8. Michelle Poland & David C Maré, 2005. "Defining Geographic Communities," Urban/Regional 0509016, EconWPA.
  9. David C. Maré, 2005. "Indirect Effects of Active Labour Market Policies," Working Papers 05_01, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  10. Andrew Coleman & John Landon-Lane, 2007. "Housing Markets and Migration in New Zealand, 1962-2006," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/12, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  11. Allan, Corey & Kerr, Suzi, 2013. "Examining Patterns in and Drivers of Rural Land Values," 2013 Conference, August 28-30, 2013, Christchurch, New Zealand 160191, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  12. Steven Stillman & David C. Maré, 2008. "Housing Markets and Migration: Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers 08_06, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  13. Christian Pierdzioch & Jan Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(1), pages 16-29, November.

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