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Land Taxes and Revenue Needs as Communities Grow and Decline: Evidence from New Zealand

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Author Info

  • Suzi Kerr

    ()
    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

  • Andrew Aitken

    ()
    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

  • Arthur Grimes

    ()
    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

Abstract

An efficient housing market is of critical importance for individual welfare and for a well-functioning economy. We test the efficiency of this market by estimating the factors that determine both the long-run and the dynamic paths of regional house prices. Our tests use a new quarterly regional panel data set covering the 14 regions of New Zealand from 1981 to 2002. The tests indicate that regional housing markets converge to an equilibrium consistent with consumer optimising conditions, and hence with long-run efficiency. However, some conditions required for short-run (dynamic) efficiency are violated. We find that extrapolative price expectations, based on past regional phenomena, lead to overshooting of house prices in response to new region-specific information. We also find that price dynamics are influenced by past regional house sales activity and that the dynamic adjustment process is asymmetric depending on whether house prices are above or below their long-run equilibrium.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Motu Economic and Public Policy Research in its series Working Papers with number 04_02.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: May 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:04_02

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Related research

Keywords: House prices; housing appreciation; housing market; adjustment dynamics;

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References

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  1. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
  2. Patrick Bajari & Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "Estimating Housing Demand With an Application to Explaining Racial Segregation in Cities," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 20-33, January.
  3. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  4. Dubin, Robin A., 1992. "Spatial autocorrelation and neighborhood quality," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 433-452, September.
  5. Suzi Kerr & Dave Maré & William Power & Jason Timmins, 2001. "Internal Mobility in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/04, New Zealand Treasury.
  6. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, . "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 323, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
  7. Feldstein, Martin S, 1977. "The Surprising Incidence of a Tax on Pure Rent: A New Answer to an Old Question," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(2), pages 349-60, April.
  8. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  9. Suzi Kerr & Jason Timmins, 2000. "Economic Geography and Spatial Statistics: Theory and Empirics of New Zealand Regions," Treasury Working Paper Series 00/11, New Zealand Treasury.
  10. Karl E. Case & Christopher J. Mayer, 1995. "Housing Price Dynamics Within a Metropolitan Area," NBER Working Papers 5182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Wai Kin Choy & David C Mare & Peter Mawson, 2002. "Modelling Regional Labour Market Adjustment in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/01, New Zealand Treasury.
  12. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  13. Suzi Kerr & Megan Claridge & Dominic Milicich, . "Devolution and the New Zealand Resource Management Act," Treasury Working Paper Series 98/07, New Zealand Treasury.
  14. Wallace E. Oates, 1999. "An Essay on Fiscal Federalism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(3), pages 1120-1149, September.
  15. Arthur Grimes & Suzi Kerr & Andrew Aitken, 2003. "Housing and Economic Adjustment," Working Papers 03_09, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  16. Capozza, Dennis R. & Seguin, Paul J., 1996. "Expectations, efficiency, and euphoria in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 369-386, June.
  17. Fisher, Ronald C., 1982. "Income and grant effects on local expenditure: The flypaper effect and other difficulties," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 324-345, November.
  18. Ballard, Charles L & Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1985. "General Equilibrium Computations of the Marginal Welfare Costs of Taxes in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 128-38, March.
  19. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 29-46.
  20. McDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "Regional House Prices in Britain: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 40(1), pages 43-55, February.
  21. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
  22. David C Mare & Peter Mawson & Jason Timmins, 2001. "Deprivation in New Zealand: Regional Patterns and Changes," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/09, New Zealand Treasury.
  23. W. Erwin Diewert & Denis A. Lawrence, 1996. "The Deadweight Costs of Taxation in New Zealand," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(s1), pages 658-73, April.
  24. Jorgenson, Dale W & Yun, Kun-Young, 1990. "Tax Reform and U.S. Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S151-93, October.
  25. Gamkhar, Shama & Oates, Wallace E., 1996. "Asymmetries in the Response to Increases and Decreases in Intergovernmental Grants: Some Empirical Findings," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(4), pages 501-12, December.
  26. Can, Ayse, 1992. "Specification and estimation of hedonic housing price models," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 453-474, September.
  27. Pain, Nigel & Westaway, Peter, 1997. "Modelling structural change in the UK housing market: A comparison of alternative house price models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 587-610, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Grimes, Arthur, 2005. "Regional and industry cycles in Australasia: Implications for a common currency," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 380-397, June.
  2. Michelle Poland & David C Maré, 2005. "Defining Geographic Communities," Urban/Regional 0509016, EconWPA.
  3. Arthur Grimes & Suzi Kerr & Andrew Aitken, 2005. "Bi-Directional Impacts of Economic, Social and Environmental Changes and the New Zealand Housing Market," Urban/Regional 0509012, EconWPA.
  4. David C Maré, 2005. "Indirect Effects of Active Labour Market Policies," HEW 0509004, EconWPA.
  5. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2004. "What's the Beef with House Prices? Economic Shocks and Local Housing Markets," Working Papers 04_08, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  6. Steven Stillman & David C. Maré, 2008. "Housing Markets and Migration: Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers 08_06, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  7. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Intra & Inter-Regional Industry Shocks: A New Metric with an Application to Australasian Currency Union," Macroeconomics 0509019, EconWPA.

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