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Housing Markets and Migration in New Zealand, 1962-2006 Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Andrew Coleman
John Landon-Lane (Reserve Bank of New Zealand )
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This paper uses a structural vector autoregression model to analyse the relationship between migration flows, housing construction and house prices in New Zealand. It shows that a net immigration flow equal to one percent of the population is associated with an approximately 10 percent increase in house prices. This size of this relationship, which has existed since the 1960s, is an order of magnitude larger than would be expected from the average change in the population and house prices in the long term. One explanation is that migration flows occur at times when locals are changing their demand for housing because of revised expectations about future income growth. A second explanation is that migrant flows have a destabilising effect on agents expectations about the fundamental value of houses. While the paper cannot satisfactorily distinguish between these two options, the results suggest that monetary policy can still be used to dampen the house price changes that occur at times when migration flows are unusually large.
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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number
DP2007/12.
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Length: 60 p.
Date of creation: Sep 2007Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2007/12Contact details of provider: Postal: P.O. Box 2498, Wellington Phone: 64 4 471-3767 Fax: 64 4 471-2270 Email: Web page: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz More information through EDIRC
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Reserve Bank of New Zealand Knowledge Centre).
Keywords: Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers R21 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand R23 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports :
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken & Suzi Kerr, 2004.
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"Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices ,"
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P.N.(Raja) Junankar & David Pope & Glenn Withers, 1998.
"Immigration and the Australian Macroeconomy: Perspective and Prospective ,"
Australian Economic Review ,
The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 31(4), pages 435-444.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2008.
"Analysing shock transmission in a data-rich environment: A large BVAR for New Zealand ,"
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
DP2008/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
[Downloadable!]
Steven Stillman & David C. Maré, 2008.
"Housing Markets and Migration: Evidence from New Zealand ,"
Working Papers
08_06, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
[Downloadable!]
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